Editor’s Note: This morning, we welcome guest writer Adam Jacobson from .

If you ask most baseball fans to name the greatest postseason hitter in history, one name comes up almost immediately: Reggie Jackson. He’s literally known as Mr. October for his iconic playoff performances with the Yankees and Athletics, capped by his three-homer game in the 1977 World Series.

But in recent years, another player has started building a postseason résumé that rivals even Jackson’s. A player who has thrived when the pressure is highest and the lights are brightest: Randy Arozarena.

However, after splitting two games at home in the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers, the Mariners’ postseason star has been quiet. Batting just 1-for-8 with a stolen base and a run, Arozarena hasn’t yet been the spark many fans were hoping for. Games 3 and 4 in Detroit are where Seattle will need Randy to find that extra gear, the one that has made him one of the most feared hitters in October.

In Game 2, despite Randy’s quiet performance, Jorge Polanco stole the show with two home runs, while Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez delivered clutch back-to-back doubles to give the Mariners a late lead. The pitching staff, led by Luis Castillo, was outstanding, with Castillo not allowing a hit until his final pitch in the fifth inning.

Randy Arozarena’s October Breakthrough

The legend of Arozarena began in the fall of 2020, in a season played without fans during the pandemic. The atmosphere may have been quieter, but Randy made it unforgettable.

In 20 postseason games that year, he hit 10 home runs and batted .377/.442/.831. He carried the Tampa Bay Rays to the World Series, earned ALCS MVP honors, and instantly became a postseason star.

Arozarena has built a reputation as one of the most dangerous playoff hitters in the game. His career postseason line before this year:

• .354 AVG

• 1.128 OPS

• 11 HR in 33 games

That is not just impressive, it is historically elite. In fact, among players with at least 100 career postseason plate appearances, only Babe Ruth (1.214 OPS) and Lou Gehrig (1.214 OPS) have a higher OPS. That puts Arozarena in the same conversation as the all-time legends, while his performance in the modern era under high-pressure conditions arguably makes him the most dangerous playoff hitter of his generation.

Reggie Jackson vs. Randy Arozarena

So how does Arozarena compare to Mr. October himself? Reggie Jackson has all the awards and has more than double the playoff experience, albeit Randy Arozarena has had some of the best numbers in the history of the game. In only 113 ABs (prior to this postseason), Randy Arozarena has 11 home runs (10% of his ABs).

Reggie Jackson (career postseason):

• 77 games, 18 HR, .278 AVG, .885 OPS

• 5 World Series titles

• 2 World Series MVPs

Randy Arozarena (through 2023 postseason):

• 33 games, 11 HR, .354 AVG, 1.128 OPS

• 1 AL pennant

• 1 ALCS MVP

The comparison is not exact. Reggie has the hardware and the longevity. However, the rate stats tell a different story. Randy has out-hit Reggie across nearly every category on a per-game basis.

• Jackson hit a home run once every 4.2 postseason games.

• Arozarena hits one every 3.0 games.

• Jackson’s postseason OPS is .885.

• Arozarena’s is 1.128.

If you dropped Randy’s October production into the 1977 Yankees lineup, he would fit right in and might even outshine Reggie himself.

More Than Just October

What makes Arozarena even more fascinating is that his postseason dominance is matched by steady regular-season excellence.

Since his official rookie year in 2021, he has become the only player in MLB history to open his career with five straight 20 home run and 20 stolen base seasons. Not even Mike Trout, Barry Bonds, or Alex Rodriguez did that. J-Rod will likely accomplish this next season.

• 2021: 20 HR, 20 SB (Rookie of the Year)

• 2022: 20 HR, 32 SB

• 2023: 23 HR, 22 SB

• 2024: 21 HR, 21 SB

• 2025: 27 HR, 30 SB

He is also a multiple-time All-Star, a Home Run Derby finalist, and a star for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

In other words, Randy is not only a playoff specialist. He has been one of baseball’s most reliable power/speed players since the day he arrived, and he might just be building one of the quietest Hall of Fame careers since Edgar Martinez.

Why Randy Feels Different

Part of the reason Arozarena does not always get the same spotlight as Reggie Jackson is timing.

Reggie’s prime came during the Yankees dynasty years, and his heroics unfolded on the most visible stage in sports. Randy has been doing it with the Rays, a small-market team that does not receive the same national attention.

But make no mistake. Arozarena is every bit as clutch, as entertaining, and as ready for big moments as any player in baseball today. The cowboy boots, the smile, the stolen home plate, the knack for delivering when it matters most all add to the legend.

The Verdict: Arozarena, The New Mr. October?

No, Randy Arozarena is not the New Mr. October. He is the King of October, and the Mariners are lucky to have his experience and playoff success. With the best postseason player since WWII on their roster, it’s no wonder FanGraphs lists the Mariners as one of the favorites to win it all. And it’s not just Cal Raleigh and Julio. The Mariners have an abundance of young talent who will be World Series contenders for years to come. Randy might just wake up in Detroit.

Kevin’s note: If you’re interested in analytical articles about the Seattle Mariners, subscribe to our friends at .

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

Just months after I graduated from college, the Mariners fired general manager Jack Zduriencik near the end of a disappointing 2015 season. The move, and the subsequent hire of Jerry Dipoto, unleashed a decade of intrigue beyond my wildest expectations, culminating in one of the best months of baseball in franchise history.

The past decade, which I’ve pejoratively called the 54% Era, has featured plenty of ups and downs, most characterized by solid teams that have been unable to get over the hump and accomplish something truly meaningful. For nine seasons, Dipoto teams had winning records six times but won two total playoff games in their lone appearance in 2022. As recently as early September, the 2025 team threatened to be the seventh such team without adding to the latter total.

However, you no doubt know how the story has culminated, with the Mariners winning an absurd 17 out of 18 games and clinching a playoff spot, the AL West, and a first-round bye in consecutive games. Fangraphs fancies the team the favorite to win the World Series. Out of a decade of consternation and controversy, the team fans have been begging for all along has suddenly sprung.

A Magical Run

Without a doubt, the 2025 team boasts the most talent of any team that Dipoto has assembled in Seattle. However, that wasn’t always the case, as the team started the season as the classic “80% of a complete MLB roster” that’s come to define Dipoto’s teams. That was quickly exacerbated by early serious injuries to the team’s starting RF and 2B, Victor Robles and Ryan Bliss. It took a turn for the worse throughout the opening months, as George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller all missed about six weeks.

The Mariners were a pretty ordinary, flawed team for much of the 2025 season, as their pitching lagged behind one of their best offensive seasons of the decade. At the trade deadline, the front office deployed effective aggression, taking Arizona’s lunch money for two of the best bats available, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, but did very little to bolster the iffy bullpen, only adding LHP Caleb Ferguson. The team played well for the first part of the second half, but was a completely different team away from home, enduring consecutive ghastly East Coast road trips that threatened to scupper their status as a likely playoff team.

Suddenly, on Sept. 6, the Mariners sprang to life with a 10-2 drubbing of the Braves, followed by an 18-2 romp the next day. A perfect 7-0 home stand followed, as what would become a potentially franchise-defining 17 wins in 18 games kicked into high gear. The pièce de résistance of the run was a road sweep of the Houston Astros, burying their boogeymen six feet under and rendering their first AL West title since 2001 a statistical formality.

It has all happened so fast that I’ve admittedly struggled to wrap my head around it. The experience in 2022 was much different, with the season-saving run coming in the final 14 games before the All-Star Break, and the Luis Castillo trade at the deadline cementing the Mariners as true contenders with a consistently high-level of play down the stretch. They also never truly pushed past the Astros, as the division was never close and the Yordan Alvarez walk-off doomed their ALDS showdown. This year, the Mariners achieved everything the Dipoto regime has strived to accomplish (and come up agonizingly short of) in a whirlwind three weeks.

It’s hard to accurately assess where we are at the moment, and a good bit of this hinges on winning the ALDS against Detroit, but at this stage, I think it’s accurate to say that the Dipoto plan has worked, if just barely. Year 10 was dogged by many of the frustrating, unsolved problems of years one through nine, until the 17-of-18 stretch KO’d every single issue in one fell swoop.

If we zoom out a bit, what really flipped the script was the Mariners hitting the nuts at the trade deadline, timed up with improved health and effectiveness from their pitching. Before Aug. 1, the Mariners were 58-52, an inconsistent team that couldn’t seem to build up any momentum. After the trade deadline, they finished 32-20, a 95-win pace befitting the elite team they’ve become.

Specifically, the Josh Naylor trade was clearly the season’s most important transaction, and could go down as Dipoto’s best trade ever if the Mariners achieve something truly memorable in the playoffs and/or re-sign him this offseason. The Mariners hit legitimately well for the first part of the season, even without considering park effects that make their output look even rosier. The offense struggled to hit with consistency, however, and largely ran a ghastly Rowdy Tellez/Donovan Solano platoon at first base. Enter Naylor, as the Mariners acquired him on July 24 and he proceeded to hit .299/.341/.490 with nine homers, 32 RBI and an absurd 19 stolen bases. He posted a 137 wRC+ and racked up 1.8 WAR as a Mariner, particularly excelling at home, with a 194 wRC+ and an OPS over 1.000. More than anything, Naylor’s competitive fire has no doubt made a difference in a clubhouse filled with nice guys but short on “been there, done that” and “F U”. That’s not necessarily a statement against the Mariners’ existing core, but Naylor clearly invigorated a group accustomed to coming up short.

The Mariners weren’t the elite pitching team they were in 2024 for much of 2025. For the year, they finished 13th in ERA, ninth in FIP and 10th in K/9. In September, when they made their decisive run, they were fourth, third, and third in those categories. Luis Castillo, who was terrible in August, had a dominant September, flirting with perfection in his division-clinching start. The pitching staff had let the team down on the road for most of the second half, but they never allowed the Mariners to trail the Astros in the pivotal road sweep.

Simply put, it all came together at exactly the right time for the Mariners. The combination of the groundwork they laid throughout the year, the right moves at the trade deadline, and improvements in the pitching and how the coaching staff managed that group, coalesced perfectly for a lightning strike run. Just weeks after agonizing over whether they would even make the playoffs, they won the AL West for the first time since the 116-win season and we’re watching other teams play in a playoff round before the Mariners even take the field.

Where to next?

The plan, written in the stars since Dipoto convinced Mariners ownership to cut payroll to rebuild better after the 2018 season, finally came together. The Mariners were the Best in the West in 2025 after all these years toiling behind Houston, and they got there on merit, despite Houston’s injury issues.

That’s clearly a credit to everyone in the organization, including the players, the coaches, and the front office. I’ve already touched on a few of the things that turned this 85-win Mariners team into a 95-win team after the trade deadline, but on the whole, there have been a few other changes worth shouting out.

First and foremost, the installation of Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez, and subsequently Kevin Seitzer and Bobby Magallanes to work under Edgar, have undoubtedly sparked a system that had run its course under Scott Servais and Jarret Dehart. I’ve been extremely pro-Wilson throughout his tenure, principally because the man is just winning ballgames. Wilson finishes the 2025 season 111-85 as Mariners manager over his first nearly 200 games, an unprecedented 56.6% win rate in the history of the franchise. His predecessor, Servais, never won more games in any season than Wilson won in his first full season (he won 90 games with less talented teams, though). While Wilson’s decision-making improved over the course of the season, it’s been clear from the jump that he commands the respect of the players, particularly the 2025 season’s most important player, Cal Raleigh, whom he mentored through Cal’s time growing up in the organization. To me, it’s not coincidental that Cal’s breakout season came after the Mariners replaced the previous manager, who told him he should know better when publicly addressing the organization’s cheapness, with his mentor and gave him an affirming contract extension.

Additionally, and this is maybe a tad personal versus an actual impact, but Jerry Dipoto has mostly shut up and let the team do its thing since another in a long line of silly interviews during Spring Training. He said the roster didn’t have many holes, and then when it did end up having quite a few holes, he (and Justin Hollander, whom Jerry credited for the moves) went and fixed them at the trade deadline and has mostly shied away from victory laps since. It’s a far cry from 2023, when Jarred Kelenic directly cited Jerry’s “Prime Babe Ruth” radio interview comments as negatively impacting the clubhouse of that would-be contender, and Dipoto followed that with his 54% disasterclass. He’s resisted the urge to dunk on the fans of the team he runs and has seemingly addressed this late run with the same relief we all have.

Where the Mariners and the Dipoto era sit now are on the precipice of a couple of huge opportunities.

The first, obviously, is a real chance to both make and win the first World Series in franchise history. They’re considered the favorites, at least in the AL, because of how well they’ve played since this roster came together in August. Despite some injury question marks with Bryan Woo and Naylor, they should be well-positioned to throw their best at anyone who stands in their way. They haven’t taken a prohibitive favorite into the playoffs like this in any year other than 2001, and you have to cash in on something that happens only twice in basically 50 years.

There’s also a real chance that the Dipoto perpetual contention machine has finally become self-sustaining. If the Mariners re-sign Josh Naylor, they have promise and solidity everywhere on the field. We’ve seen just how close top prospect Colt Emerson is to the MLB roster over the last month, as he finished the season in Tacoma and has played on the taxi squad in playoff tuneup scrimmages in the week since. It’s clear he’ll be a part of the MLB team in 2026. There are also two Top 100 starting pitchers, a slugging OF and 2B who could easily factor into the 2026 picture, alongside Harry Ford and Cole Young, not to mention the younger prospects they have in reserve. The annual conversation around which inevitably crappy veteran hitter Dipoto will bring in on a budget to try to squeeze production out of could finally be coming to an end.

In the present and the future, the Dipoto era might have finally reached its promised heights in the very last month of his decade in charge. It’s better late than never for Mariners fans dying to see a championship contender and desperate to feel good about the baseball team that always lets them down in one way or another.

Nothing left to write other than, “let’s win the whole f-ing thing.”

So is the 2025 lineup really that good? Is it possible that we can expect a fun offensive performance nearly every night? Let’s compare this group with the best of the best in Mariners history through August 7th and see how it stacks up. While I will list these four seasons (1995, 1997, 2001, and 2025) in random order, you should be able to figure out which is which based on the information given.

Option A:

LF - .245, 23 HR, 57 RBI, 66 R, 21 SB
C - .248, 42 HR, 90 RBI, 75 R, 13 SB
CF - .254, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 74 R, 22 SB
1B - .289, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 57 R, 21 SB
3B - .239, 37 HR, 90 RBI, 69 R, 2 SB
DH - .255, 18 HR, 53 RBI, 43 R, 5 SB
RF - .287, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 16 R, 2 SB
SS - .265, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 51 R, 6 SB
2B - .252, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 18 R, 1 SB

Option B:

LF - .295, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 48 R, 2 SB (not on team yet)
2B - .289, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 42 R, 11 SB
CF - .263, 7 HR, 15 RBI, 23 R, SB (injured most of the year)
DH - .363, 17 HR, 70 RBI, 80 R, 4 SB
1B - .299, 26 HR, 83 RBI, 62 R
RF - .264, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 48 R
3B - .268, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 34 R
C - .274, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 21 R
SS - .279, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 30 R, 4 SB

Option C:

RF - .333, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 93 R, 38 SB
UTIL (LF) - .296, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 55 R, 29 SB
DH - .305, 15 HR, 73 RBI, 54 R, 4 SB
1B - .308, 14 HR, 68 RBI, 68 R, 2 SB
2B - .327, 26 HR, 104 RBI, 81 R, 2 SB
CF - .261, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 74 R, 24 SB
SS - .251, 4 HR, 46 RBI, 57 R, 2 SB
3B - .245, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 47 R
C - .256, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 32 R

Option D:

2B - .326, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 79 R, 5 SB
SS - .305, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 76 R, 22 SB
CF - .296, 34 HR, 103 RBI, 81 R, 11 SB
DH - .327, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 80 R, 2 SB
RF - .242, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 75 R
1B - .274, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 52 R
C - .274, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 49 R
3B - .284, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 51 R
LF - .246, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 22 R

Did you figure out which option is which year? I am guessing most of you got option B as the 1995 team. An injured Griffey and a late acquistion of Vince Coleman (on August 15th - can you believe that?) changed the lineup. While we have great memories of ‘95, it wasn’t a particulary awesome offensive team. You know what team was? The 1997 team.

Option D (1997) featured Russ Davis with 16 bombs and Paul Sorrento way better than you remembered (22 homers through August 7 with a .274 average!). And of course, A-Rod, Griffey, Edgar and Buhner in the heart of the lineup. Sick.

The 2001 team was so balanced (option C) but lacks the star power of the other lineups. But a top 5 that all has a .296 average or better is utterly ridiculous. This team was so good in clutch situtations and just kept coming at you. They walked more than they struck out in big spots, they came through with the clutch hit (Ichiro was insane at this) and they were balanced.

But what about 2025? With a 6-1 record since the trade deadline and every game featuring four or more runs, the talk of sports radio and silly Seattle podcasts is how deep this lineup is post Geno and Naylor acquisitions. And it is true. The top six hitters all have 14 or more home runs. Put that in comparison to the other three lineups. Only the 1997 team can match that many players with that power. Move on to RBI and again only the 1997 lineup is better with seven playes at 53 or more (the current lineup has six).

Clearly the older lineups have more .300 or better hitters. However, we need to put that in context. Just as we can’t compare NFL passing yards in 2025 to passing yards in 1981, we must realize that more power comes with more swing and miss. Thus, lower averages. The game is different now - even compared to 2001. Between 1993 and 2009, the Major League average for batting average (say that twice) was in the .270s or .260s. Now it is in the .240s. Amazingly, nearly every Mariner in the 2025 lineup is above league average.

Only time will tell if this 2025 lineup ranks among the Mariner greats. They will have to finish strong and make the playoffs to even be in consideration for most Mariner fans. But just on paper, they are making the case. And so far on the field, the case is getting stronger each day to possibly be the best.

Subscribe now

Time was running out on Wednesday night, and the Mariners were losing a Bryan Woo start to the cityless Athletics with 18 hours to go until the MLB trade deadline.

And then, from the clouds, the notification from the Baseball is Dead discord hit my phone: “@Mariners, @Diamondbacks”. Having received the same notification a week ago for Josh Naylor’s acquisition, I could conclude only one thing: Geno was back.

The trade for Eugenio Suárez, a Mariners hero in the midst of the best season of his career, has changed the complexion of Seattle’s season. It also represents the top move available on the board for any contender looking for an offensive upgrade. The Mariners were able to complete it the day before the deadline for a shockingly inexpensive prospect haul. In every sense, the move is a home run.

The Suárez deal, the pièce de résistance of an excellent Mariners trade deadline, could energize what’s been a sleepy, middling Mariners season so far outside of the astounding individual exploits of Cal Raleigh. The energy around the move radiated through the screen from the ballpark last night, as nearly 30,000 showered Geno with ovations all night. While they’re already sitting in a playoff spot with a positive projected outlook, there’s real hope that splashing for Suárez could turn the tide.

Good Vibes Only

Mariners acquire 3B Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks for 1B Tyler Locklear (MLB), RP Hunter Cranton (A+) and RP Juan Burgos (AAA)

I’ve already called this deal a home run, so you can pretty clearly intuit how I feel about it. Where it initially seemed like the price for Geno would get too rich for the Mariners blood, the pendulum swung suddenly the other way Wednesday night, and the Mariners landed their former 3B for a shockingly light prospect haul.

Locklear could only have been the signature piece of a deal like this over the past week or so, and it’s incredibly fortuitous for the Mariners that his insane AAA heater since making a swing change in late June got this done for them. It’s possible he’s a good MLB 1B very soon, but for him to headline the Mariners’ signature move for the most resonant player they could possibly add is an incredible coup. It’s a credit to the Mariners’ front office, and in particular, their close relationship with Arizona’s front office, that they were able to land both Suárez and Naylor without a Top 100 guy.

Another shocking aspect of the return was Arizona accepting relief prospects instead of starters in Cranton and Burgos. Both had promising upside to contribute to the Mariners’ 2025 bullpen and beyond, but Cranton was derailed by a liner to the face in Spring Training and Burgos had a rocky cameo in the bigs. Truly, this return would have been stunning even a month ago, and barely makes sense now. Baseball Trade Values, a notoriously flawed public MLB player value site, rated the deal as an underpay by the Mariners, which is a shocking outcome for a deadline deal for the best hitter obviously available.

The Geno effect was on full display on his first day back in the organization, as he took over social media, played to the home crowd and even scored the game’s first run after poking a double down the line. Anecdotally, I’ve never seen a Mariners acquisition quite like this, where he subsumes everything else surrounding the team.

The Mariners new-look lineup was substantially upgraded by Geno’s addition:

On their trade deadline show Thursday, Jake Mintz, the non-Mariners fan half of Cespedes Family BBQ, called this the best Mariners lineup since 2001. It’s hard to argue with that definitively, especially after moving Randy Arozarena, the team’s best hitter over the past six weeks, to the leadoff spot. It’s a great top six, and all three of the bottom three contributed in various ways on Thursday. The added value of swapping Ben Williamson for Suárez has completely transformed an already pretty stellar Mariners offense.

Nayl-ed it

Mariners acquire 1B Josh Naylor from the Diamondbacks for RP Brandyn Garcia (AAA) and SP Ashton Izzi (A+)

You could argue no team is likely to see more 2025 value from a deadline move than the Mariners will get from the Naylor trade, which they closed with the Diamondbacks a full week before the deadline.

As much as Garcia has significant upside as an immediate relief contributor and Izzi was showing promise this season in Everett, it was shocking that Arizona took this deal when they did. It let the Mariners get Naylor for most of their road trip through Anaheim and Sacramento, which didn’t go well but would’ve gone worse without him.

Naylor’s competitive factor has been off the charts since he arrived. He said in the dugout before his first game that he loves to win. He hit an absolute tank off of a left-handed pitcher and was all business in the aftermath, barely emoting. Thursday, he expressed his love and admiration for Suárez by saying he felt “pure joy” when he heard the news, while barely cracking a smile. He walked up to “Stan” by Eminem in his first home game, which is a song about being obsessive and crazy.

Naylor may look like previous Mariners 1B Rowdy Tellez in terms of physique, but since arriving, he’s been anything but. That’s been particularly apparent on the basepaths, where Naylor, who has some of the worst measured sprint speed in the league, has stolen five bases without being caught in his first week with the team.

All told, the two deals with Arizona, particularly at the cost they were accomplished for, made this an “A” deadline for the Mariners, as long as they did basically anything of note to address the bullpen.

Finally, a second lefty

Mariners acquire LHP Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates for SP Jeter Martinez (A)

The Mariners could have taken several paths to improving their bullpen, and they chose an adequate one. They have been particularly bad in the 5th and 6th inning this year, and failing improvement from four starters there wasn’t really a feasible way to upgrade, they needed to lengthen their bullpen somewhat.

For me, the best way to do this would have been adding another right-handed reliever to their high-leverage group that would allow for greater flexibility in how they use Matt Brash. The Mariners did reportedly attempt to do this, according to Adam Jude from the Seattle Times. They apparently had an offer out to the Twins for electric closer Jhoan Duran, Jude told Puck Sports, that was comparable to the one the Twins ended up taking from the Phillies. After not landing that deal, the Mariners seemingly chose not to pursue any additional alternatives, which, while frustrating, isn’t necessarily egregious.

By this time, they had already landed Ferguson to add something else they’ve been missing in the bullpen: a second left-handed pitcher. Gabe Speier has had an excellent 2025, and currently holds the distinction as the best lefty strikeout reliever the Mariners have ever had on a rate basis. But without a second lefty in the bullpen, Speier was often pigeonholed into less-than-ideal usage. The Mariners would often use Speier for a high-leverage pocket of lefties in the fifth or sixth inning at the end of a start, and then face a big shrug emoji of how to bridge to Brash and Muñoz.

Ferguson should help solve that problem, and he offers a different skillset to Speier, with a more diverse pitch arsenal and an elite soft contact-oriented approach. Additionally, as a member of the 2018 and 2023 Dodgers and the 2024 Astros, he has more postseason experience than the entire Mariners bullpen combined.

Where I struggle with Ferguson being the only move made to improve the Mariners bullpen is that he doesn’t seem like a great candidate for consistent, meaningful 7th and 8th innings. He’s exceptional at inducing weak contact from left-handed hitters, but he doesn’t strike out many hitters and is outlier poor at missing bats. I’d slot him into the 4th spot on the Mariners’ bullpen ladder, but Eduard Bazardo (who has been outstanding lately) will likely see a good amount of high-leverage innings still. Carlos Vargas and Casey Legumina, both of whom have been maddeningly inconsistent for different reasons, will likely see the occasional important appearance still, which isn’t ideal. Trent Thornton had been heating up before tearing his Achilles Thursday, and he’ll be replaced by Jackson Kowar.

The group appears to largely be the group, as the Mariners traded a bunch of their potential minor league relief help and seem unlikely to conjure up a high-leverage arm from an August DFA pickup. It isn’t an incredible bullpen, and it doesn’t measure up against a few of the recently constructed monstrosities from other deadline buyers. The Mariners will have to hope their starters help lessen the load by pitching better than they have in the final two months.

An excellent deadline by any measure

The Mariners deserve commendation for a fantastic effort at the trade deadline. Another high-leverage arm could have pushed them even further toward playoff contention, but it’s hard to quibble with specifics when freaking Geno Suárez is back and smiling in the middle of the Mariners lineup.

Entering this critical series against the Rangers with the best lineup Jerry Dipoto has ever assembled was a huge victory in and of itself. The spoils were on display Thursday, as they battered Texas while George Kirby, Ferguson, Thornton and Legumina kept them off the board. It remains to be seen how the Mariners play once the dust settles and the adrenaline wears off, but for one night, they felt unstoppable.

The Mariners have universally been lauded as trade deadline winners, primarily because they landed the Geno plane without overpaying. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections say the Mariners improved their playoff odds the second-most of any team, and by far the most in the American League. They were up to 71% after the deadline, and that leapt to 77% with the series-opening win over Texas. They also still have a 26% chance at the AL West, which isn’t great but also isn’t insignificant.

The path before the Mariners is clear: the 8th-best team in the AL has a 12% chance to make the playoffs, meaning the Mariners need to beat just one of the Yankees (94%), Red Sox (61%) and Rangers (41%) to claim the sixth playoff spot. They’ve put themselves in position to do that and accomplish whatever follows that in October.

Let me just say that this is really hard. First, comparing pitchers to hitters is like speaking English to someone who only understands French. Second, putting each season within the context of the league makes for a lot of checking and double checking stats. (Thank you Fangraphs). Lastly, Edgar, A-Rod, Griffey and Ichiro had so many first half performances that were similiar, it became nearly impossible to pick among them.

But rankings are meant to be debated. Maybe you are sad to see no Bret Boone here or Robinson Cano or even Cliff Lee. (Seriously, look up Cliff Lee’s 2010 first half). Let us know and tell your friends, but just make sure you scroll to the bottom.

#10 - Edwin Diaz (2018)

Key Stats: 0-2, 2.25 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 48 games, 36 saves, 14.81 K/9, 2.4 WAR (as a reliever)

Notes: While we all marvel at Andres Munoz (who is now a two time All-Start), Edwin Diaz posting 36 saves at the All-Star break is absurd. Add into that a 0.79 WHIP, a ridiclous K/9 and 2.4 WAR as a closer? It is the best first half relief pitcher performance in franchise history.

#9 - Ichiro (2003)

Key Stats: .352, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 69 R, 25 SB, 4.4 WAR

Notes: It is really hard to distinguish one Ichiro first half from another. He hit .343 or better in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2009 for the M’s. That is crazy. And actually in this particular year, Bret Boone had a higher WAR. However, Ichiro was 5th in SB, 6th in WAR, and 2nd in batting average in all of baseball plus still outstanding defense in right field.

#8 - Alex Rodriguez (2000)

Key Stats: .345, 24 HR, 78 RBI, 84 R, 8 SB, 1.079 OPS, 172 WRC+, 6.0 WAR

Notes: A truly crazy stat line, but the year 2000 was a crazy offensive year. Is it ridiculous that A-Rod’s .345 average was 18th best in baseball? Yes. So is the fact that 24 HR ranked him 16th, but his WAR is the second best all-time in Mariners history for a first half.

#7 - Randy Johnson (1995)

Key Stats: 9-1, 2.88 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.68 FIP, 16 GS, 109 IP, 152 K’s, 4.8 WAR

Notes: 1995 was a very pitcher friendly year, but Randy still was throwing smoke. Despite having an ERA that was only 12th, the Big Unit ranked 1st in WAR, 1st in K’s, 1st in K%, 1st in K/9, and 10th in WHIP.

#6 - Edgar Martinez (1996)

Key Stats: .346, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 79 R, 8 SB, 1.179 OPS, 185 WRC+, 4.8 WAR

Notes: Edgar was first in all of baseball in WAR in the first half of the 1996 season. He was second in WRC+ behind Mark McGwire (as well as OPS) and tied for 3rd in MLB in RBI. His average ranked him 7th overall while still hitting 22 bombs.

#5 - Ken Griffey, Jr. (1997)

Key Stats: .307, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 67 R, 8 SB, 1.031 OPS, 154 WRC+, 4.8 WAR

Notes: Junior was third in MLB in WAR at the break while ranking 2nd in HR and 1st in RBI. He did this while hitting .307 with eight steals.

#4 - Felix Hernandez (2014)

Key Stats: 11-2, 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.03 FIP, 20 GS, 144 1/3 IP, 154 K’s, 4.6 WAR

Notes: Just look at those numbers again. Felix ranked 1st in MLB among all pitchers in WAR, 2nd in ERA, 1st in FIP, 2nd in innings pitched, 2nd in WHIP and 2nd in K’s. Truly dominant.

#3 - Ken Griffey, Jr. (1994)

Key Stats: .329, 33 HR, 69 RBI, 72 R, 7 SB, 1.104 OPS, 174 WRC+, 5.7 WAR

Notes: Griffey had so many fantastic first half performances that it is hard to differentiate them after awhile. In the 1994 season, Junior would have won MVP if there wasn’t a strike. At the break, he was 2nd in HRs, 3rd in WAR, 6th in WRC+, 5th in OPS in all of baseball.

#2 - Ken Griffey, Jr. (1998)

Key Stats: .299, 35 HR, 79 RBI, 76 R, 8 SB, 1.133 OPS, 163 WRC+, 4.5 WAR

Notes: Griffey, McGwire, Sosa. Those three names captured baseball in this 1998 season. At the break, Junior was 1st in Major League Baseball in runs scored, 2nd in homers and 4th in RBI. While still hitting nearly .300.

#1 - Cal Raleigh (2025)

Key Stats: .259, 38 HR, 82 RBI, 65 R, 10 SB, 1.011 OPS, 178 WRC+, 6.2 WAR

Notes: Cal finished the first half of the 2025 season as one of only two players in MLB history to record 35+ HRs and 10+ steals (Reggie Jackson being the other). The Big Dumper also has the best WAR in Mariners history for a first half and leads all of baseball in HRs while ranking 2nd in WAR, 3rd in WRC+, and 3rd in OPS (behind Judge and Acuna).

The 2025 draft is unique in that no one really knows who will go in the top 5. Sure, there are mock drafts and projections, but it is so hard to predict future success in baseball and the team holding the #1 overall pick (Washington Nationals) just fired their general manager. So yes, confusion and chaos could ensue. In order to be prepared for this weekend’s MLB draft, we provide you with a breakdown of the five players most likely to be available at #3 overall for your Seattle Mariners.

Left Handed Pitchers

Kade Anderson, LSU

Stats: 12-1, 3.28 ERA, 2 complete game shutouts, 35 walks and 180 strikeouts in 119 innings

Why would Mariners draft him?

Because he might be in the majors next year. At 21 years of age (and despite or maybe because of a Tommy John surgery), Anderson is ready to compete at a high level already. He throws a fastball, slider, and change up mix from the left side with potential for both the slider and changeup to be plus pitches. The fastball velocity sits at 94-95 MPH which makes me a little nervous for a top 5 pick. However, 180 strikeouts in 119 innings while pitching a shutout in the national championship game overrides those concerns.

Liam Doyle, Tennessee

Stats: 10-4, 3.20 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32 walks and 164 strikeouts in 95 2/3 innings

Why would Mariners draft him?

Also 21 years old and a seasoned college baseball vet, Doyle was really good this year. What makes Doyle really good is his fastball. Sitting in the mid-90s and touching 100 miles per hour, Doyle throws his fastball about two-thirds of the time. He also throws a slider and a cutter, but his fastball is what gets swings and misses (105 strikeouts this year on the pitch). Doyle has been to three colleges (Coastal Carolina and Mississippi) and wasn’t as effective before Tennessee. But he also wasn’t throwing as hard. That fastball will tempt the M’s if he is available. Maybe 15.49 K/9 would intrigue them. Just maybe.

Jamie Arnold, Florida State

Stats: 8-2, 2.98 ERA, 27 walks and 119 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings

Why would Mariners draft him?

Guess what? Also 21 years old and also gets a lot of swings and misses. Arnold throws from a lower arm slot that reminds me of Randy Johnson. His arm angle helps create a pretty nasty break on his sweeping breaking ball while throwing 94-97 MPH on his fastball. In some ways, the M’s would take him because the other two are gone I suppose. If Seattle wants a starter to potentially replace Gilbert, Castillo or Kirby in the next couple years, any of these three can do the trick.

The College Hitter

Aiva Arquette, Oregon State

Stats: .354 average with 1.115 OPS in 310 plate appearances for the Beavers. Hit 19 HRs with 66 RBI while only striking out 51 times with 39 walks.

Why would Mariners draft him?

As a 6-5, 220 pound shortstop, it is easy to see why the Mariners would be interested. I just don’t know if you pass on guys who produce with that frame and athleticism. Arquette has a good swing and plenty of power potential as most analysts project at least 20-25 HR potential from him down the road. Even with Colt Emerson and Cole Young in the mix up the middle, Arquette might be too tempting to pass up.

The High Ceiling High School Arm

Seth Hernandez, Corona High School

Stats: Allowed only three earned runs (0.39 ERA) in 53 1/3 innings while striking out 105 batters and walking only seven batters. Also hit .300 with seven homers.

Why would Mariners draft him?

Some draft experts think Hernandez has the highest upside of any player in this draft. At 6-4, Hernandez touches upper 90s on his fastball while also throwing a plus level changeup already in high school. Interestingly, Hernandez didn’t play high school baseball until his junior year (although he was playing on select circuits) as he was homeschooled. People rave about Hernandez’s work ethic and his ability to adjust and improve. If the M’s do one thing well, it is develop starting pitching. I am sure they are salivating thinking about what they could do with Hernandez. However, he clearly would be at least 2 years (and more likely 3) from the majors.

The two other obvious players that would tempt the Mariners would be high school hitters Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits. Holliday could go number one overall and so he seems unlikely to fall to Seattle. However, Willits could very well be there and is considered by some to have the highest upside of any player in the draft (and is very young). With the M’s having so many hitting prospects in the low minors, it just doesn’t feel like they will go with another high school hitter. But Jerry DiPoto doesn’t usually follow what most predict so expect Willits in a Mariners uniform soon!

Of the Mariners teams since they started winning again, none have seemed as hopelessly middling as the 2025 vintage.

The 2021 Mariners thrived on pure vibes. The 2022 Mariners played rancid ball for nearly three months before morphing into a legitimate juggernaut. The 2023 Mariners came to life over the summer and pushed for a division title. The 2024 Mariners played out of their minds at home before a summer collapse led to changes in the dugout and a late resurgence.

Through the first half of the season, the 2025 Mariners are just kind of there. A good enough start against a soft early schedule saw them lead the AL West for roughly a month, but since then, they’ve been mired in the muddled middle of the AL Wild Card race. They have one of the league’s best rotations on paper, but aren’t getting more than league-average production from their starters. Their offense rates well overall, but is maddeningly inconsistent game-to-game and struggles mightily with runners in scoring position. Their bullpen is solid on the back end, but its depth is shoddily constructed and often poorly deployed.

The 2025 Mariners are, in a word, mid.

Where in years past, that would have curbed the team’s opportunity for success, the 2025 American League is pacing to be one of the weakest leagues in recent MLB history. Entering July, the Mariners hold the third and final AL Wild Card spot, and they are the sixth and final AL team over .500. The closest team pushing them in the playoff race as of Monday was the freaking Angels, for perspective.

It should be noted that the Mariners have largely fallen out of the AL West race. The Astros have sped away, once again playing inspired ball even without their star, Yordan Alvarez. In a year where they lost two more stars from their championship run, they still totally outclass the Jerry Dipoto Mariners.

Facing the backdrop of an unlikely division title, an extremely soft wild card, and questions about what their budget looks like in the wake of the Leody Taveras debacle, the Mariners must navigate the trade deadline. The July window has become much more critical for the Mariners in recent years. Dipoto didn’t make a player-for-player swap after the 2024 trade deadline for 10 months, a reflection of how difficult trading has become for a team that also has precious little to spend in free agency year-to-year. The deadline offers the most trade-friendly environment for the Mariners to improve, both for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Selling is off the table

Selling at the trade deadline doesn’t make sense for the 2025 Mariners. A playoff appearance, even if it’s the final Wild Card at around 84-86 wins, would carry an outsized impact for the franchise and its fans, as it would be just their sixth one ever. Even with the Astros pulling away in the division, there’s simply no reason for the Mariners to wave the white flag on the season.

On top of that, the team isn’t set up to sell. It’s unclear if any of their players on expiring contracts, including Jorge Polanco, Dylan Moore, Donovan Solano and Mitch Garver, would net anything more than a minor league flier. Their veterans who could potentially net some impact, such as Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, and their relief aces Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash, would likely help them more in 2026 than whatever they would reasonably get in a trade. The Mariners are perpetually attempting to contend, and they can’t afford to strategically step back in 2026 to chase some sort of dubious upside in 2027 or 2028.

Even in a seller’s market, while barely over .500, selling doesn’t work for the 2025 Mariners.

How big should they buy?

The question then becomes, how big should the Mariners go in July in an attempt to inject a middling team with life in the second half?

They’re certainly going to be in the market for a corner infield bat. First base will probably be the easiest position to add at, with a wide range of veterans available on seller-minded teams. But third base, with Ben Williamson playing nearly every day and Moore enduring the worst stretch of his career, offers the biggest opportunity.

The obvious, but complicated, name for an upgrade at third base is Eugenio Suárez. The Mariners’ offense is sorely lacking in consistent power output outside of Cal Raleigh, and they have seen first hand how Suárez can add thump to their offense. A trade for Suárez, who will almost surely be available unless Arizona catches fire, would be a significant capitulation by Dipoto. He salary dumped him in late 2023 behind the clear belief that Suárez was washed up, only for the Venezuelan dynamo to smack 56 homers in 1.5 seasons in the desert. The Mariners would need to find about $5 million for Geno, but beyond that, Dipoto would have to tuck tail and publicly acknowledge that his attempts to replace Suarez haven’t succeeded.

A move for Suarez, his Arizona teammate Josh Naylor, or Orioles all-star Ryan O’Hearn, seems like the kind of headline move the Mariners will make this deadline. They aren’t bombshell moves, but they’ll cost a third tier prospect or two and shore up some weaknesses in the lineup.

Last season, with a flawed lineup and bullpen, they invested seven prospects to add two bats, including Arozarena, and two bullpen arms. I don’t expect that level of investment this time around, but three, likely two bats and one relief arm, could be the magic number for them this year.

Depending on available resources and Cleveland’s trajectory, a Carlos Santana reunion could also be possible. The Mariners aggressively tried to land Santana this winter and came up short, and it wouldn’t be the first time they asked him to save their season. If the Mariners think Moore has truly lost it, they could make a move for Pittsburgh’s Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Baltimore’s Ramón Urías, both of whom should cost very little to acquire.

It will be interesting to see what sort of arm they target, or if they acquire multiple. They have a good amount of weaknesses in their pitching staff right now:

• They lack a reliable, high K/9 4th arm in the bullpen to pitch high-leverage 6th and 7th innings.

• They don’t have a second lefty arm whatsoever, meaning they can only generate the coveted left-on-left platoon disadvantage during one outing per game, roughly three times per week maximum.

• Emerson Hancock’s numbers as the 5th starter have a lot of noise in them, but he could feasibly be upgraded, and both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have dealt with significant injuries this year, which could make a depth starter make sense.

Ultimately, I think the Mariners go cheap on the arm and make a similar move to the J.T. Chargois trade before the 2024 deadline. They likely view AAA lefty Brandyn Garcia as a potential second-half breakout in the second lefty role, and the arm they really need is a consistent FOURTH reliever behind Andres Muñoz, Matt Brash and Gabe Speier, which likely doesn’t justify spending significant prospect capital. I’m not a Carlos Vargas or Casey Legumina guy, but I could see the logic in hoping for a sun run from one of them vs. trading Tyler Locklear+ for a bad team’s 8th-inning guy.

The depth starter case is tricky, and falls into the same boat of “is this really worth paying a decent prospect for?”. Right now, the Mariners have a solid five, with Hancock the only squeaky wheel. Logan Evans didn’t necessarily shine in his MLB audition, but he’s a solid enough 6th starter. Bryce Miller probably won’t pitch again this year, but he’s technically still attempting to return in July. The case to acquire a real upgrade is thin enough that the inflated deadline cost may be prohibitive.

Ultimately, two bats, one on the higher end of the market and one on the lower end, and one arm feels like the right-size solution for a team with very little chance of winning anything meaningful in the regular season. Seattle’s continued apathy toward constructing anything capable of winning more than 54 percent of its games has likely doomed their 24th consecutive failed attempt at the AL West. Conversely, that lack of ambition permeates the rest of the league and has opened the opportunity for even a shaky Mariners team to sneak in and hit the ground running in the playoffs.

The Mariners are mid, but their path beyond that mediocrity likely isn’t achievable at this trade deadline. Truly, the only way this team breaks 90 wins this year will be through Logan Gilbert and George Kirby (1.4 fWAR combined in 2025) regaining their elite level with improved health in the second half, or a massive, sustained, Julio Rodríguez heater. Otherwise, the Mariners will need a couple of bounces to go their way, find their way into the playoffs and hope that anything can and does happen.

The 18-hour period between Logan Gilbert suddenly exiting the game Friday night and his MRI results returning a slightly encouraging grade-one forearm strain was some of the tensest time Mariners fans have experienced in a while. Fans were terrified, and it provided a stark reminder of the fragility of the Mariners’ situation.

On the surface, the 2025 Mariners season has gone swimmingly so far, with the team rescuing a rough first 12 games with six consecutive series wins to bring them to 16-12, atop the AL West after the opening month. The Mariners offense somewhat shockingly bears the most responsibility for that strong start, with a team wRC+ in an elite second tier only trailing the mighty Yankees league-wide. They’ve showed tangible improvement at the plate in the first month of the Edgar Martinez-Kevin Seitzer regime, leading the league in walk rate and reverting their strikeout rate much closer to the league mean than the ghastly figures they’ve posted in recent years.

They’ve done all this despite significant injury issues in all corners of their roster. George Kirby hasn’t thrown a pitch and Gilbert hit the IL Saturday and will likely miss multiple months. Victor Robles broke a bone in his shoulder and will return sometime in July, and Ryan Bliss tore his bicep and will miss almost the entire season. Jorge Polanco, the Mariners’ best hitter so far, has only batted left-handed for the past few weeks and seemingly semi-retired from playing infield, leaving multiple holes in what was the Mariners worst position group coming into the year. Neither Matt Brash or Troy Taylor have returned to full strength, and Gregory Santos will miss who knows how long due to knee surgery.

They’ve also weathered a few genuinely terrible contributions from three core areas of the roster. Their only true offseason addition, Donovan Solano, has been arguably the worst player in all of baseball this year, and has dragged down their first base platoon with Rowdy Tellez from rough to awful. Appointed eighth-inning reliever Trent Thornton has been the worst relief pitcher in the American League, with a homer problem that nukes any sort of quality contributions he has mixed in so far. For the first three trips through the rotation, the Mariners’ fifth starters contributed an Emerson Hancock first-inning blowup and two sub-MLB level starts from some guy somehow also named Luis Castillo.

And yet, this team thoroughly deserves their 16-12 record. The pitching hasn’t been great, but the two relievers at the back-end of the bullpen, Gabe Speier and especially Andrés Muñoz, have won the Mariners close game after close game.

Their offense, on the other hand, has excelled in all facets but hitting with runners in scoring position, although that has improved somewhat recently as well. The minimum, non-Solano wRC+ on the active roster entering Sunday was Miles Mastrobuoni’s 97, and every other player was at least league average. Jorge Polanco, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena have been excellent lineup anchors. J.P. Crawford shook off an awful start and has surged to a 146 wRC+ with some power mixed in. Ben Williamson joined the big league club and has belonged as an MLB player to a startling degree, posting a 136 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 11 games. Dylan Moore had a monstrous road trip and is rocking a 165 wRC+. They’ve gotten key contributions from Leo Rivas, Mastrobuoni and Tellez.

On the heels of sixth straight series win Sunday, it’s hard to feel significantly negative about anything that’s transpired on the field thus far.

Sink or swim?

That said, the Mariners’ roster feels strained as the calendar turns to May.

Their 6th and 7th starters, Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans, have had promising recent starts, but the Kirby and Gilbert injuries have the rotation stretched to capacity. Bryce Miller has already had issues physically bouncing back from his appearances. Weirdly, the Mariners’ healthiest, highest-volume starting arm appears to be Bryan Woo, who previously struggled with injuries and going deep into games. And in the bullpen, the struggle is real beyond Speier and Muñoz. Until Matt Brash returns from Tacoma and gets ramped up, spots three through eight in the Mariners relief core amount to total crapshoots.

The lineup, as it did Sunday, regularly has Mastrobuoni, Rivas and either Solano or Tellez in three of its nine spots. Those three (not Solano) all made key contributions so far at one point or another, but better plans need to emerge eventually.

There’s also just not a ton of sustainability to much of their offensive production. Polanco’s 233 wRC+ with a .352 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a league-leading .739 slugging percentage will slow considerably, although he could certainly remain a major run producer in the middle of the Mariners’ order. Moore and Rivas are both posting wRC+ numbers that are 50% higher than you’d expect them to sustain. Crawford looks a lot better than he did in his injury-riddled 2024 season, but he’s also out over his skis a bit, although he’s stabilized shortstop for another year, it appears. The rookie Williamson, running a .364 BABIP and a 135 wRC+, will likely settle much closer to 100.

Even with a ton of over-performance, Julio Rodríguez could likely cover off a significant amount of that inevitable regression to the mean. Julio has a 103 wRC+, but has amassed 0.8 fWAR, because he’s contributing by far the most defensive value on the roster. He’s unlocked something new at the plate, walking at an 11.5% clip, nearly double his career BB%. He’s running a .234 BABIP, which is a full 100 points below his career numbers. Mariners fans are used to his slow starts in April, but this has been a bit better than that, and his improved plate discipline suggests his typical summer surge could reach new heights in 2025 and carry the offense through the regression that’s to come.

Even if Julio massively heats up, the Mariners will need long-term solutions to fill the roster holes they still have, but that’s exactly where the worm may be turning.

Finishing the project

Williamson’s first two weeks in the majors suggest the dam could finally break for the Mariners’ “step back” project.

So much of the 54% era has seen the Mariners operate with 70-80 percent of a good roster and flail miserably to finish the final 20-30 percent. The 2025 season is no exception, as the veteran panacea to multiple roster holes, Solano, has had one of the worst Mariners offensive seasons of all-time thus far. Platooned with Tellez, a minor-league flier elevated to a starting role, they’ve combined for -0.6 fWAR.

But the first 11 games of Ben Williamson have shown something that the Mariners experiment hasn’t produced in quite a while: impactful offensive production from a rookie with some prospect status.

Williamson’s early offensive production, while not overly flashy, has defied expectations. With the Mariners’ Plan As at 2B and 3B completely decimated in the opening two weeks of the season, Williamson’s mandate was to play elite defense at 3B and just try to stay above water offensively. Instead, he has 13 hits, 10 runs scored and seven RBI in 11 games. He’s not just a productive rookie, he’s one of the best fixes the Mariners have recently attempted for any of their offensive holes.

Williamson is the second of the Mariners players drafted between 2021 and 2023, when the team leaned hard into drafting offensive impact, to debut with the team. The first, Tyler Locklear, appears poised to return to the majors to address the aforementioned disastrous first base situation. Locklear has posted a .333/.415/.516 slash in Tacoma with a 10% walk rate and 24% K rate this season. On the heels of Williamson injecting life into the 3B role, Locklear should see plenty of playing time at the Mariners’ other corner infield spot in May.

The Mariners have been trying to solve the same problems on their roster since 2022. At first base, they’ve cycled through Carlos Santana, a struggling Ty France, Justin Turner, Mike Ford, and now Tellez and Solano. At second base, they’ve deployed Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong, José Caballero, and the broken-down version of Polanco. At third base, they solved the post-Kyle Seager problem with Eugenio Suárez, only to ludicrously salary dump him and try to piece it together since with Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, a physically incapable Polanco, and a whiff of Moore, Mastrobuoni and Solano. They’ve allocated DH reps to A.J. Pollock, Tommy La Stella, Ford, Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Tellez before Polanco finally found his home this month.

Williamson, Locklear and the rest of the next wave could finally provide real solutions to the problems this front office has repeatedly failed to solve. Cole Young, the wild card in this trio who came into the season viewed as the most potentially impactful, could plug in at 2B in a month or two, and the Mariners could fall into long-term fixes at all three of their major infield holes entering the season.

This dream scenario should NOT preclude the Mariners from getting aggressive at the trade deadline. They must acquire at least one experienced veteran bat to raise the roster’s floor heading into a potential playoff push.

But watching Williamson take over at 3B has just felt different than basically anything the Mariners have tried in the past few years. It’s the first step toward that perpetually stacked Top 30 prospect list actually helping them fix the offensive holes that have kept them short of the playoffs since 2022. And seeing it makes me hope that after all the angst and bloviating, the Mariners may finally finish their long-term project.

In just four years as the Mariners backstop, Cal Raleigh has compiled a CVS receipt of impressive accomplishments.

He hit the homer that broke the Mariners’ multi-decade playoff drought once and for all, and then hit a homer in the first inning of their first playoff game since 2001 for good measure. He has the most home runs for a primary catcher in the first four seasons of a career in MLB history, and he had just two during his first season. In 2024, Raleigh won both the AL Gold Glove at catcher as well as the AL Platinum Glove, which is awarded to the best overall defender in each league.

For my money, the accomplishment that best defines Raleigh took place on the last day of September 2023, shortly after the rising Mariners fell short of the playoffs. On that day, one of several fateful Game 161s for the Mariners over the past decade, Raleigh let loose on the organization over their handling of transactions after his drought-breaking heroics and throughout the disappointing 2023 season.

Among Raleigh’s comments that day, from CBS Sports’ recap at the time:

“We’ve got to commit to winning, we have to commit to going and getting those players you see other teams going out and getting — big time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up.”

"We've done a great job of growing some players here and within the farm system, but sometimes you've got to go out and you have to buy.”

"You look at the other locker room, they've added more than anybody else and you saw where it got them this year."

“That other locker room” proved to be prescient, as the visiting Texas Rangers would win the 2023 World Series less than a month later.

Raleigh, by that time a Mariners legend but still just 26, cemented himself as more than just team hero that day. He directly vented the frustrations of the fan base, frustrations that have only intensified since, and showed his desire not just to win, but win for Seattle.

A perfect extension for the perfect Mariner

No player or person is more responsible for the success, such that it is, of Mariners baseball this decade than Raleigh.

Raleigh has amassed nearly 14 fWAR since debuting in 2021, second only to Julio Rodríguez on the team in that time. That’s a reflection of his immense impact on the field, but only begins to highlight his overall influence on the Mariners.

You can’t tell the story of the rise of the Mariners’ elite starting rotation, now widely considered a top 3-5 unit leaguewide, without Raleigh. Raleigh and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners’ newly minted ace, have been thick as thieves since both joined the organization in 2018. Cal has continually stewarded breakouts from young Mariners pitchers, as George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have ascended to consensus status as Top 30 starting pitchers in the league.

Raleigh also simply shows up as much as any other MLB catcher. He played an absurd 145 games in 2023, and backed that up by appearing in 153 in 2024. Only William Contreras and Sal Perez played more among primary catchers last year. For a player who weathers an astronomical amount of dings and dents behind the plate, he’s been remarkably durable, a consistent power-hitting presence in the Seattle lineup.

The extension, which begins immediately and tacks on three additional guaranteed years, is a favorable deal for both sides.

For Raleigh, the deal adds $69 million in guaranteed money into his first three years of free agency, as well as a reachable vesting option that drives the post-arbitration years value to nearly $100 million. For the Mariners, the deal locks in their other franchise cornerstone through the remainder of the decade, but also doesn’t require them to pay a catcher with significant tread on his tires beyond age 35.

In his profile published Wednesday, Ryan Divish called Raleigh “the conscience of the Mariners”, and that characterization supports how Cal is more than just a baseball player who plays for the Seattle Mariners. As the comments in 2023 showed, Cal not only cares about winning, but leading his team to victory. Even after he apologized the next day, he remained steadfast in the message he had communicated.

“I'm not gonna apologize for wanting to win and wanting to bring a World Series to the city,” Raleigh said. “They deserve it. The fans do and this organization does. And I'm committed to doing that.”

A championship move?

Raleigh’s messaging stayed the same Wednesday evening when the extension news dropped. From the official press release announcing Raleigh’s extension:

I wanted to stay here because of the connection with the people of the Pacific Northwest and the Seattle Mariners, but I know it doesn’t always work out the way you want it to. I feel blessed that the Mariners gave me this opportunity and I can’t think of a better place in MLB to call home. We have a great nucleus of players here and aren’t far off from bringing the World Series to Seattle. It won’t be easy but I believe ownership and management share the same vision and commitment. I won’t stop working and I won’t stop grinding until this city gets what it deserves, and that is a perennial playoff team and a World Series Championship.

The man wants to win the World Series with the Seattle Mariners, that’s for sure. Cal’s already the most universally beloved Mariner and the fan favorite of Seattle sports in the 2020s. It certainly helps that at every turn, he says what the fans of the only baseball team to never make the World Series want to hear.

The message remained clear in his comments on the Mariners’ social media channels.

“I’m here for the long haul. Super excited to be playing for you guys, best fans in the world. Really looking forward to getting to work and winning a World Series for the city.”

It’s meaningful to hear this sort of ‘‘shoot for the stars” messaging from a fan favorite like Raleigh, especially when so much of the Mariners’ baseball operations strategy seems geared toward winning 85-88 games without ever risking winning 95 or 75. It’s much easier to believe in your baseball team when your trusted team leader publicly commits and talks World Series. It drowns out the unreliable narrators at the top who speak about long-term plans that still haven’t come to fruition after a decade or talk out both sides of their mouth about committing without the backing of their wallets.

The timing of this move couldn’t be better for the Mariners. After an offseason of doing very little, skepticism about the direction of the organization reached the national baseball zeitgeist. While hope always springs eternal this time of year, the fan base appeared much more guarded as March wound down, with most optimism about the team trending cautious.

The one-two punch of the ROOT Sports Streaming deal and Raleigh’s extension have upped fans’ moods significantly ahead of Opening Day Thursday. If you had to pick the two biggest priorities for Mariners fans other than “make the playoffs” or “win the division”, extend Cal and make ROOT Sports accessible OTT could easily be both.

With Cal extended, the heart and soul of the Mariners remains intact for any season a fan could reasonably care about on the verge of Opening Day 2025. Not only do fans have yet another bankable star, alongside Julio, to consider “forever” Mariners, the key to the success of the pitching staff and the glue of the locker room is now firmly locked into place.

If there’s one player I’d want to chase that World Series with as I prepare for another season with my historically inept hometown baseball team, it’s Cal Raleigh.

“What the hell are we doing? Are you trying?”

This could easily have been one of several thousand angry replies to Mariners social media posts over a winter of discontent for their fans. Facing an opportunity to push their roster forward this offseason, upper management sat on its hands, hemmed and hawed, and came away with Donovan Solano as its biggest addition.

But that quote wasn’t from a reply guy, it was delivered by the Mariners’ designated hitter in their most recent regular season game, 16-year MLB veteran Justin Turner. Turner, who signed with the Chicago Cubs last month, aired frustration about the state of the Mariners to Bob Nightengale of USA Today in an article that lit social media on fire on Wednesday.

Turner took the criticisms of Mariners upper management, particularly ownership, to a new level Wednesday.

The fact that they missed the playoffs by one game, and didn’t go out and add an impact bat or two when you have the best pitching staff in baseball…just seems absurd to me.

Fans have similarly lamented the team’s lack of ambition from the moment they signaled they wouldn’t compete in free agency following the magical 2022 season. This offseason, I’ve noticed a much wider consensus throughout the online fandom emerge. Fans understand the team doesn’t suck, but they’re frustrated by the lack of effort to make the team great, exemplified by the Solano-headlined offseason.

That consensus expanded beyond the fanbase in the past few months and into the national media, left with no choice but to survey the raw “players in, players out” and scratch their heads at the approach. ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield gave the Mariners offseason an F grade, writing “The 2025 Mariners are going to look a lot like the 2024 Mariners, a team that missed the playoffs by one win -- for the second straight season.”

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden was slightly kinder, giving the Mariners a D, and writing “Seattle hitters led the majors in strikeouts in 2024, and the Mariners did nothing to address it in the offseason.”

Former MLB player and Talkin’ Baseball host Trevor Plouffe said the Mariners had “the worst offseason, relative to what my expectations are of them, and where they can be, which is a World Series team.”

The best illustration of the rise of this “good, not great” consensus around the Mariners came in a brilliant interview of Jerry Dipoto by KJR’s morning show hosts, Chuck Powell and former Mariner Bucky Jacobsen. Both Powell and Jacobsen have been more favorable toward Dipoto than many of their colleagues, but this first major question from Powell displayed the shift toward that aforementioned consensus:

“You’ve done a great job with the rebuild, and it feels like you have a championship foundation here, and yet, in the last couple of years, and particularly this offseason, where’s that championship move?”

Justin Turner torches the Mariners

The Nightengale article was a remarkable step forward for the mounting frustration around the direction of the team. He was not a fan, nor a local media member with an axe to grind, nor a national media writer swooping in to look at box scores or transaction logs, but an active player who appeared in the team’s most recent game, going on the record to criticize how the team’s baseball operations are being managed.

Turner, who was effusive in his praise for the Mariners young rotation, said “there’s never going to be a better time in the history of that franchise to have added a couple of bats to make a run than this year.” I’m not sure a quote from an active player in an article has ever lined up so well with an average Mariners fan’s disgruntled tweet. Except perhaps, as the article references, when Cal Raleigh publicly criticized the team’s lack of spending at the end of the 2023 season, and apologized the next day.

Seattle Times Mariners beat reporter Ryan Divish surveyed the scene in the Mariners’ clubhouse following Turner’s comments Wednesday, and wrangled this anonymous quote from a Mariners player: “I would think any intellectual baseball fan that’s been following this team would see what has been happening.”

An interesting wrinkle of Turner’s commentary to Nightengale saw the veteran mostly absolve Dipoto in his picture of the organization’s shortcomings.

“I think Jerry catches a bad rap for a lot of these trades and how crazy some of these trades have been," Turner said. “But now being a part of it, I kind of understand. He doesn’t have any money to spend, so he’s got to create money. Like, OK, is it really Jerry’s fault?

That quote stands out, particularly since Dipoto has earned a reputation for poor communication that has frustrated Mariners players over the years, most notably Kyle Seager. For Turner, a respected veteran who has seen almost everything there is to see in the league, to openly back Dipoto in that manner definitely indicates some progress in Dipoto’s perception within the Mariners clubhouse.

Jerry Dipoto gives an interview about his interviews

Where Dipoto has regressed and not progressed is in how he speaks to and about the fans of the baseball team he runs.

In an article published by The Athletic Thursday morning, Angels reporter Sam Blum interviewed Dipoto . . . about his interviews. The timing of the Blum-Dipoto article was almost definitely totally coincidental with the Turner-Nightengale piece, but in combination, it doesn’t paint a picture of an organization willing to do anything different than take the most frustrating possible path for its fans.

Dipoto, who primarily contributes to that frustration not through head-scratching transactions but by delivering quotes that insult fans’ intelligence, used this article to lament his reputation he has wholly earned since he delivered his infamous 54% and “doing the fans a favor” comments in October 2023. From the article:

“Is it a hard job? Yeah,” Dipoto said. “It’s a hard job. But most jobs are hard jobs. But in most jobs, they don’t stick a microphone in front of your face.”

Conscious of that, Dipoto has intentionally scaled back the number of times he speaks publicly. Seemingly every time there is a microphone in his face, he says something that rubs a disgruntled fan base the wrong way.

“Truly, I could say ‘hello,’” Dipoto said, “and it would turn into a thing right now.”

If I’m following this framing:

• Dipoto is claiming that what makes his job more difficult is the need to make public comments to the media and whenever he talks it will “turn into a thing”

• As a result, he’s intentionally doing less media and public talking

• He’s saying this in an exclusive interview with a media member about how he talks to the media

Got it. Jerry’s “I’m intentionally doing less media” shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by his shirt.

To be charitable to Jerry, he has done less media since his infamous press conference made him a national laughingstock for a news cycle. His weekly radio show/pizza oven check-in with Brock and Salk didn’t return for the 2024 season. That show was a staple of online discourse during the 2022 and 2023 Mariners seasons and led to another notable Dipoto quote, when he said in June 2023 that “we could go out and acquire prime Babe Ruth and it's not going to help us.” After he was traded in late 2023, Jarred Kelenic went on Foul Territory and said that particular comment brought “unwanted, unneeded attention to the team.” Dipoto has also recorded just six total episodes of his podcast, The Wheelhouse with Jerry Dipoto, since the 54% press conference, and just one in the last 10 months.

But to Blum’s point, when Dipoto still does speak to the media, it doesn’t usually go well for him. His national embarrassment at the end of 2023 caused the Mariners to convert the end-of-season press conference to a roughly 30-minute media scrum before the second-to-last game of the season. In February, on a private media call officially announcing the Jorge Polanco re-signing, Dipoto rankled fans by claiming the Mariners offensive issues are more perception than reality. He also said the team’s offseason was quiet since it didn’t have many holes to fill, despite GM Justin Hollander’s earlier identification of several infield holes that needed filling and weren’t filled except in the most charitable reading of the offseason.

Then there’s the continued insistence that somehow the fans or the media are at fault for misinterpreting his 54% comments some 18 months later. From the Blum article:

Dipoto now wavers between two competing thoughts. One is recognizing that he communicated his point poorly. The other? Maintaining that it’s not his fault that the message wasn’t fully understood.

“People obviously didn’t understand it the way I expressed it,” Dipoto said, speaking with The Athletic in his spring training office earlier this spring. “My guess is that 98 percent of people didn’t actually listen to it. They just read it off a tweet.

“It’s what it is. Maybe they wouldn’t have understood it any better had they heard the whole thing. And that’s on me for poorly communicating what I think is a simple idea.”

Leaving aside the fact that the videos of him saying the comments were what went viral and caused the national news cycle, what Dipoto still misses about the comments is the message he delivered directly to the fans. Not once in Blum’s article does the word “favor” come up, and the insistence that Dipoto is doing the fans of the only baseball team never to make the World Series a favor by trying to win roughly 87 games every year is what drives much of Mariners fans’ continued frustration with their president of baseball operations.

Dipoto even acknowledged franchise history in Blum’s piece, saying “I don’t want to continue to constantly apologize to people for not winning the World Series in 1979, ’89, ’99. I understand the history of the Mariners. We can’t erase 48 years.”

That’s wonderful to hear that you understand, Jerry. Do you get why we’re frustrated with making the playoffs once in nine years from 2016 through 2024, though?

Fans in the dark

Wednesday was a particularly challenging day for the Mariners that could have been boosted significantly by some good old fashioned endorphins derived from watching the franchise player hit the baseball. Sure enough, Julio Rodríguez went deep in both of his first two ABs against the Royals.

The only problem? No one could watch it.

And sure, the game was at the Royals’ Cactus League home and nowadays Spring Training games are largely broadcast by the home team. But as Julio was homering twice, the Mariners had zero coverage of the game except through the radio broadcast on Seattle Sports. Until the conclusion of the game, the team’s most recent tweet was a retweet of ROOT Sports promoting a new episode of Mariners All-Access that the team’s television station was premiering DURING THE GAME. As of Thursday, a video of just one of the homers had made it to social media and it wasn’t via the team.

At the outset of Spring Training, the Mariners released their spring broadcast schedule, which included a notable yearly uptick in broadcasts. That uptick came in the form of increased webcasts, a limited but direct-to-consumer format that has largely been a huge win for the team in terms of increasing access to the product.

But with that announcement came a curious claim; the Mariners announced the eight webcasts and seven ROOT broadcasts as “more Spring Training games than ever before” available for their fans to watch. Sure, the 15 broadcasts are certainly an upgrade on recent yearly spring offerings, but more than ever before seemed suspect.

Surely, that wouldn’t be verifiably false, right? Well, the Mariners neatly archive their press releases and a lucky shot Google search of how many exhibition games they broadcast 10 years ago before the 2015 season yielded a release announcing that there would be sixteen Cactus League games broadcast that year. So much for that.

In a rare offseason piece of good news, Kevin Martinez ascended to the role of Mariners President, Business Operations in October. As many of the tributes to Martinez when the news was announced indicated, he’s been the heart and soul of the last 35 years of Mariners baseball as much as any player or coach. Martinez gets how the organization should work, and often is a direct ear for fans satisfied and frustrated alike. He also has led the charge on several initiatives that have improved the experience of Mariners fans in recent years.

As such, it was actually a relief when Martinez joined Dave “Softy” Mahler for Softy’s annual President’s Day show on KJR instead of Dipoto. Martinez offered some great perspective about the state of the organization without directly addressing any of the nagging on-field concerns Dipoto would address days later with Chuck and Buck. Unfortunately, Martinez also parroted the same line about fans being able to watch more Spring Training games than ever. As he’s someone who deeply knows every corner of the organization, it’s hard to believe ignorance was involved here.

The “more…than ever before” framing was unnecessarily false and soured what otherwise would have been a welcome announcement about increased opportunities to watch the team during a depressing preseason.

What are fans to do?

It’s another week of Mariners news which reduces the plausibility that the organization’s leadership has the best interest of the fans in mind. Turner’s words portray ownership in a damning light, in a way that resonates perfectly with the sentiment of the fanbase. Dipoto continues to openly air his frustrations with the fans’ lack of appreciation for the way he does his job. The phrase “more than ever before” is apparently open for interpretation.

The negative forces attacking the heart and soul of the tortured Mariners fanbase don’t represent what I consider to be The Seattle Mariners. If there’s any fanbase that deserves to be catered to and given every possible consideration, it’s one that’s dealt with zero World Series appearances in 48 years. Those who would demean, deceive and gaslight that dedicated group don’t truly stand for the team those fans support.

That said, fans don’t buy tickets to watch the fat cats who control the purse strings or the baseball executives play. They spend their hard earned cash on the product, which is the players. Despite the Mariners’ failure to invest in hardly any new ones this offseason, they have a plethora of talented and likable guys on the roster.

Mariners fans haven’t loved a player like they love Cal Raleigh in some time, and the newly crowned Seattle Sports Star of the Year has both spoken up on the fans behalf before and shown he’s capable of carrying the torch for the franchise. Perhaps management’s last great gift to Mariners fans was a soft guarantee of the entirety of Julio Rodríguez’s career, and one of the greatest young players in the history of Major League Baseball should have higher highs sooner rather than later. The Mariners also boast four homegrown starters in their mid-20s, all of whom have their own unique appealing skillsets and personalities.

It’s going to be tough, with decades of bad baseball and trauma under our belts, to look at an unimproved roster projected for 84-86 wins and envision anything other than the team has repeatedly come up just short of their goals. If that’s not for you after the last two years, and frankly, the last four decades, I won’t hold it against you.

Despite our justified frustrations, the leaders of this franchise aren’t changing their ways any time soon. It’s up to the fans to make the best of a bad situation in whatever way we see fit.

The Super Bowl is over, and the Mariners report to the Peoria Sports Complex this week to get 2025 Spring Training underway.

In the four months since the World Series, the Mariners did remarkably little to change the look of their roster. They have the exact same starting rotation, basically the same offensive group, and didn’t sign a reliever to an MLB contract. In total, the Mariners’ 40-man roster has just SEVEN new players on it from outside the organization, and an eighth who was added to the roster from the minor leagues. For context, Jerry Dipoto turned over the ENTIRE 40-man roster in his first four years running the organization.

Still, despite a roster filled with incumbents, the Mariners have a lot of playing time up for grabs. For one, a lot of the incumbents don’t exactly scream irreplaceable, and also, the outside solutions don’t carry proven track records. Even with more than 30 familiar faces, there’s as much opportunity available in the Mariners lineup and bullpen than there’s been since at least 2022, and a greater volume of intriguing players in the mix than usual as well.

Starting Pitching

1. Logan Gilbert, RHP, 27 years old

2. George Kirby, RHP, 27

3. Luis Castillo, RHP, 32

4. Bryce Miller, RHP, 26

5. Bryan Woo, RHP, 25

Depth: Emerson Hancock (RHP, 25), Logan Evans (RHP, 23), Blas Castano (RHP, 26)

The Mariners rotation didn’t change a bit since the end of 2024, and that’s a good thing. Even though this group couldn’t ultimately overcome the terrible offense the Mariners played in 2024, the front office correctly recognizes that their group of nasty right handers form the core of their squad. In a testament to self-restraint, Dipoto combated his trade addiction successfully and avoided swapping out any of his golden arms, despite other teams calling on them almost exclusively this offseason. Faced with a clear path to making huge trades before the 2025 season, Dipoto defied his reputation and didn’t tinker.

The “who is the Mariners ace?” discourse is largely meaningless and unproductive, but after 2024, it’s quite clearly Gilbert in my eyes. In his first three full MLB seasons, Gilbert has pitched the most innings in the American League and the fourth-most in all of baseball. He led MLB with a preposterous 0.89 WHIP in 2024, made his first all-star game and received his first AL Cy Young votes, finishing sixth. Perhaps the most telling indicator that he’s ascended to Mariners acedom? That’s his 9-12 record in 2024, with the run support in keeping with the hallowed tradition of King Félix.

Behind Gilbert, Kirby offers the most ace-like package, but his 2024 showed signs of a speed bump for his strike-heavy style. While he delivered another MLB-leading K/BB season and still racked up 4.2 fWAR, he led the American League in hits allowed, showing the first signs of cracks in his superstar ascent. Like Kirby, the duo of Miller and Woo both look likely to take steps forward in 2025. Miller’s incredible work ethic and knowledge of the game could take him to the very top of the sport if the former fourth-round pick keeps defying the odds. Woo shrugged off an injury-riddled first half of 2024 to massively breakout in the second half, and he seems likely to continue rising rapidly as long as he holds up physically.

Castillo stands in contrast to the rest of this group in 2025 as a pitcher possibly in decline. After 1.5 seasons of borderline ace-level contribution for the Mariners, Castillo was much closer to average in 2024. With that in mind, the Mariners front office seemingly spent a significant chunk of this offseason trying to trade La Piedra and his remaining three years and roughly $70 million, to no avail. Seattle could definitely use some top-tier stretches from its highest paid player in 2025.

The Mariners’ depth beyond their top group gets dicey quick, although that’s largely a function of the roster-building model they’ve employed. With a tight budget and established rotation, they’re not going to be able to afford big guarantees to sixth starters, and they’ll need to rely on minor league veteran fliers and their player development for depth in case of injury. Their 2020 first-round pick Hancock is the clear sixth man, and he played that role to the tune of 12 of the most meh starts you’ll ever see in 2024. Hancock’s pro career has had a ton of ups and downs to this point, and 2025 could be a make-or-break year for him. After Hancock, Evans offers the most compelling blend of upside and MLB readiness. The Mariners abandoned a brief attempt to make Evans a super reliever in 2024, and after 107 AA innings, he’s got a shot to debut in Seattle’s rotation at some point this year. Castano was picked up from the Yankees in 2023 and performed well enough in 32 starts at Arkansas and Tacoma the past two seasons that the Mariners made a point to add him to their 40-man roster. He and the recently DFA’d Jhonathan Diaz are in the mix behind Evans.

There will likely be a few more names to emerge for spot start opportunities in 2025, as pitcher health is never guaranteed. That said, entering Spring Training, this is probably the most formidable rotation the Seattle Mariners have ever had.

Offense

1. Julio Rodriguez, CF (R), 24

2. Cal Raleigh, C (S), 28

3. Randy Arozarena, LF (R), 29

4. J.P. Crawford, SS (L), 30

5. Victor Robles, OF (R), 27

6. Luke Raley, 1B/OF (L), 30

7. Jorge Polanco, 3B? (S), 31

8. Donovan Solano, 1B/3B/DH (R), 37

9. Dylan Moore, 2B/3B/SS/OF (R), 32

10. Mitch Garver, C/DH (R), 34

11. Mitch Haniger, DH/OF (R), 34

12. Leo Rivas, 2B/SS (S), 27

13. Austin Shenton, DH/1B/3B (L), 27

Depth: Ryan Bliss (2B, R, 25), Cole Young (2B/SS, L, 21), Tyler Locklear (1B, R, 24), Dominic Canzone (OF, L, 27), Blake Hunt (C, R, 26), Miles Mastrobuoni (UT, L, 29), Nick Dunn (2B/3B, L, 28), Ben Williamson (3B, R, 24)

Of the 13 names projected above, 11 ended the season on the roster. Polanco, the team’s big offseason splash for two years running, will switch to 3B, and the Mariners will paper over the departure of Josh Rojas and Justin Turner with Solano and Shenton. If that sounds underwhelming to you, I don’t blame you.

The Mariners’ offensive quality comes from their outfield and up-the-middle core. Rodriguez, Arozarena, and either Robles or Raley forms one of the best starting outfields the Mariners have had in a long time. Raleigh is the best all-around catcher in baseball, and Crawford, coming off a down year at the plate marred by injuries, feels like a lock for 2-3 WAR season if his defensive rebound holds.

The infield picture is much messier. Raley, a shockingly athletic corner OF, looked poor defensively at 1B in 2024, and is unlikely to play against left-handed starters. Solano, who’s seemingly too old to contribute at difficult defensive positions, will platoon with Raley and see significant DH starts. Polanco has just 24 career MLB appearances at 3B and 15 since he was 22, all during the 2023 season. Moore, who played more than 30 games at all of 2B, 3B and SS in 2024, projects to start at 2B for time being. Mariners GM Justin Hollander name checked Rivas last week on Seattle Sports 710, and he’s likely to backup all three of those positions as well. Shenton’s lack of defensive acumen makes him more of pure bat, but he could potentially factor in at the corners. For a team that claims to have significant playoff aspirations, it’s a distressingly uncertain infield situation.

The situation would drastically improve if the Mariners saw a breakout from Bliss, Young or Locklear. Bliss and Locklear both had small-sample debuts in 2024 and showed promise along with significant flaws. I kept Bliss off the Opening Day roster based on Hollander indicating Moore would start at 2B. While Bliss has the athleticism and sneaky pop to make an impact, his defensive limitations make him a less versatile bench contributor than Rivas. Bliss could see his opportunity arise the same way it did in 2024, were Polanco to (inevitably) get injured and Moore’s services be required at the hot corner. Locklear had a so-so MLB debut and a so-so 2024 in AAA Tacoma, which is presumably why the Mariners pushed hard this offseason to sign a RHH 1B instead of handing that job to the former Top 100 prospect. His best path to MLB reps may be through an injury or release involving Haniger, which would free up some regular DH opportunities.

Young deserves his own paragraph here, as he’s the first Top 100 prospect on offense with a real chance to debut on the Opening Day roster that the Mariners have had since Rodriguez in 2022. The Mariners 2022 first-round pick, called an “OBP prodigy” by Fangraphs, had solid 2024 season in AA. The starting 2B role seems to be calling his name, and a big Spring for the left-handed hitting Young could make it hard for the Mariners to shrug their shoulders and run Moore out against a ton of right-handed pitchers. An MLB debut after a few months in Tacoma seems more likely for Young, but it won’t take much for the Mariners to turn over their barren keystone.

The Mariners still have a less-than-dynamic duo of Mitches weighing down their bench. Naturally, due to the harmonious blend of Dipoto’s roster construction and ownership’s budget restrictions, the third- and fourth-highest paid players on the Mariners combined for -1.0 fWAR in 2024. The pair of them return in 2025, Garver as the likely backup catcher who will feature as a DH against LHP, and Haniger as some sort of veteran right-handed bench bat. Seattle would surely jettison both in a second if they could, but for now will hope reduced roles will lead to pressure-free production for wily veterans with nothing to lose.

The final bench spot is totally up for grabs, owing to the fact that, as mentioned, the Mariners did very little to improve this offseason. Count me down for Shenton, both as a former Mariners farmhand come full circle and as a nice opportunity for the Bellingham High School graduate. Shenton’s bat seems more stable and ripe for a bench role than the mercurial Canzone, who posted an unfathomable -79 wRC+ in 22 high-leverage plate appearances in 2024. Another potential option for the final spot is Dunn, a longtime Cardinals farmhand who is not Ben Affleck, although he does share the name of his character from Gone Girl. The Mariners signed Dunn to an MiLB pact before the end of the World Series and his track record in the high minors makes it obvious why. He has nearly as many career walks as strikeouts and has hit comfortably over .300 from the left side over the past two seasons in AA and AAA. Were a lot to go wrong with plan A at either 2B or 3B, Dunn could offer useful depth, despite never having debuted in MLB.

Personally, I don’t think Mastrobuoni and Hunt, the two sparest parts of the hitters on the Mariners’ 40-man roster, have a chance to make the team without a significant injury. Ditto for Williamson, although he merits mention because he plays the Mariners biggest position of need, 3B, at an insanely high level. Despite a middling offensive profile, Williamson is regarded as one of the best infield defenders in Minor League Baseball, as well as easily the Mariners’ strongest defensive third baseman.

Bullpen

1. Andrés Muñoz, RHP, 26

2. Gregory Santos, RHP, 25

3. Collin Snider, RHP, 29

4. Trent Thornton, RHP, 31

5. Eduard Bazardo, RHP, 29

6. Gabe Speier, LHP, 29

7. Tayler Saucedo, LHP, 31

8. Will Klein, RHP, 25

Depth: Cody Bolton (RHP, 26), Hagen Danner (RHP, 26), Casey Legumina (RHP, 27), Carlos Vargas (RHP, 25), Brandyn Garcia (LHP, 24), Drew Pomeranz (LHP, 36), Neftalí Feliz (RHP, 36), Shintaro Fujinami (RHP, 30), Jesse Hahn (RHP, 35), Adonis Medina (RHP, 28)
Injured: Matt Brash (RHP, 26), Jackson Kowar (RHP, 28), Troy Taylor (RHP, 23)

The Mariners took a group that badly lacked a dependable late-inning nucleus in 2024 and didn’t add a dependable late-inning reliever to that mix for 2025. This approach to bullpen building is another result of the marriage of Dipoto and Mariners ownership, although they’ve mostly thrived in creating effective bullpens this way prior to 2024, when the strategy showed significant diminishing returns.

The most important name in the mix is Muñoz, but less needs to be said about him than any other. He had a great 2024 and posted 22 saves as a full-time closer, although his K% continued to drop and he struggled away from home. The Mariners desperately need an 8th-inning option to emerge alongside him, and they probably would love it to be Santos, whom they acquired in 2024 from the White Sox for a pair of fringy prospects and a top-70 pick in the most recent draft. Santos battled a whole host of different injuries last season and only appeared in eight games. He has an electric arm, but might not have the durability to sustain a late-inning workload. The arm who did emerge alongside Muñoz in 2024 was Snider, a sneaky February 2024 waiver claim whom the Mariners told to throw his sweeper more and throw more strikes, which led to a nice little sun run as the 8th-inning guy last summer. Snider seems most likely to get the first crack at the 8th inning in 2025.

That’s because the Mariners’ true 8th-inning guy, Matt Brash, has been missing in action since the end of the 2023 season, when he led MLB in games pitched. The Canadian slinger’s recovery from elbow surgery places him on a late April timeline for his 2025 debut, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll step straight into the fire, as the Mariners will want to conserve him for big situations in the heart of the season. Taylor had a good chance to compete for early high-leverage reps in the Spring, but a recently discovered lat injury will see him likely miss all of Cactus League action, and he’s without a timeline for return. Kowar looked likely to win a roster spot on Opening Day 2024 before he needed elbow surgery. He’ll likely return closer to the summer, but there’s no guarantee he can win a role anyhow.

The Mariners also have solid, if unspectacular, group of bullpen incumbents that they’ll rely on for a significant chunk of the early season relief workload. Thornton has been a fixture in the Seattle bullpen since he was acquired as part of an underwhelming 2023 trade deadline and supplanted Paul Sewald on the roster. The bespectacled sweeper thrower struck out more than 1/3 of hitters he faced with no one on base in 2024, but struggled more in inherited runner situations. Bazardo is an interesting case, as he’s only pitched in 32 games with Seattle since that underwhelming 2023 trade deadline, but may or may not have had a soft breakout in late 2024. Returning to the roster on Sept. 1, Bazardo walked just one batter and allowed runs in just one of 11 appearances that totaled exactly 11 innings.

Seattle’s crafty lefties, Speier and Saucedo, both had rocky 2024 seasons, making 2025 make-or-break years for the pair of them. Speier was absolutely lights out in April before tailing off and eventually succumbing to a rotator cuff injury and making seven sporadic appearances after May 27. Saucedo also shined early but got hurt in May on a fluky play. He never found much consistency and had issues with inherited runners, allowing 43% of them to score. The Mariners will need at least one of the two of them to perform with consistency in high-leverage situations this year.

Of the three new, healthy relievers on the 40-man roster, Klein might have the most potential, as he was considered Oakland’s No. 19 prospect by Fangraphs after he was traded by the Royals for Lucas Erceg at the 2024 trade deadline. He posted a video of his most recent live bullpen last week where he hit 100 MPH, and at just 25, he gets the nod for the final spot for me because of upside. Danner and Legumina are the other bullpen lab guys of the moment on the roster, and both are young enough to have upside if they can make something of the opportunity. Danner’s slider was graded a 60 by Fangraphs as a prospect and Legumina bears some resemblance to Sewald in arm slot and repertoire.

Bolton and Vargas are the other incumbents on the 40-man. Bolton popped up with a few decent outings in April and May in 2024, but made just two MLB appearances after May 22. He has MiLB options, but by no means is his 40-man roster spot safe at the moment. Vargas, the intriguing piece of the Eugenio Suárez salary dump, is out of options and improved his erratic walk rate in 2024, but still never saw MLB despite spending the entire year on the 40-man roster. He seems like a likely DFA if he struggles at all in Spring Training.

Of the non-roster guys, I’m most intrigued by Fujinami by far. The Japanese fireballer struggled in AAA with the Mets in 2024 and battled a shoulder injury, but his raw tools popped in his relief stint with the Orioles in 2023, where he posted a 26% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate and averaged 99.2 mph on his fastball. He spent the Winter making six starts in Puerto Rico, totaling 20.2 innings with a 27% strikeout rate and a 12% walk rate. Maybe he’s nothing, but he has more life in his arm than most of the non-roster cast offs the Mariners usually bring in.

Pomeranz, Hahn and Feliz are all experienced MLB veterans who last appeared in the big leagues in 2021. Does that sound like an intentional bit from the Mariners front office for some laughs or a coincidence? Who can say, really? Similarly, Medina last appeared in MLB in 2022. He spent a year in the KBO before having a solid season in AAA with the Nationals last year. He’s only 28, unlike the other MLB veterans in this group in their late 30s, so he probably has the most upside of the bunch.

Overall roster thoughts

This is a good roster. It’s among the best the Mariners have ever had. It is as good as most rosters in the American League.

The lack of an attempt to take this good roster and make it great is weak and sad. There are clear holes at 1B, 2B, 3B and DH, and the bullpen lacks high-upside arms or relievers with big-game experience. The team did next to nothing to address any of that, swapping out one veteran utility infielder for another, switching Polanco from 2B to 3B, and taking fliers on dozens of DFA fodder guys and veteran bounce back lottery tickets. Dipoto then said they actually didn’t have many holes to begin with.

A modest budget and bad macro environment for trading means the Mariners are stuck in the middle with the other good-not-great rosters in the AL. Most projection systems and gambling sites have them slightly behind Houston and Texas in the West and firmly in the mix for the Wild Card. Seattle has to hope that they play well enough in the first half of the season to justify increased investment when teams will start cherishing their quality prospects again midseason.

Playing variance games as fringe contenders year after year is exactly where Mariners leadership has told fans they’re striving to be. At this point, there’s nothing left to do but hope this bite of the apple tastes better than the last two.

There’s not a player I personally struggled with watching more on the 2024 Mariners than Jorge Polanco.

With that context, it should come as no surprise that Thursday’s news that the Mariners had agreed to a deal with Polanco to fill their gaping third base hole left me shocked, confused and resigned about the state of the Mariners’ offseason.

Signing Polanco effectively brings to a close an offseason of stunning and depressing inaction from the Mariners. They filled the vacated roster spots of Justin Turner, Josh Rojas and Polanco with additions of Donovan Solano, Austin Shenton and…Polanco. It’s a group of moves totally lacking in upside, the very upside a team addicted to winning barely too few games to make the playoffs should be desperately chasing.

The Mariners will pay Polanco $7 million in 2025 with up to $3.5 million in incentives and a complicated vesting option for 2026. Jon Heyman reported Monday that Polanco also has full no-trade clause for 2025. It’s an aggressive offer from a financially limited baseball team for a player whose first experience in Seattle was brutally below-average.

Hurt or injured?

There's just so much to look past to legitimately like the move, starting with believing that none of his overall numbers last year matter much because he was hurt.

Polanco posted a 92 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR in 118 games and was the very worst defensive 2B in MLB by Outs Above Average. He was far worse hitting in Seattle than on the road, even by wRC+, which adjusts for Seattle’s league-worst park factor for hitters but still assigns Polanco an 86 at home and a 98 on the road last season.

Core to the thesis to downplay these numbers are Polanco’s injury struggles in 2024. He missed a chunk of time with a hamstring injury, but depending upon your perspective, a nagging knee injury derailed as much as the entirety of Polanco’s season. Polanco had surgery in October to repair the knee, which had apparently been bothering him for years, and his agent immediately insisted he’d be right as rain by the start of the 2025 season. Among my chief frustrations with the signing, Mariners fans now need to hope this timeline wasn’t agent-driven hopium. The Mariners taking more than 72 hours to officially announce the signing at least seemingly portends that they didn’t take anything for granted with Polanco’s pre-contract physical.

Polanco wasn’t always terrible in 2024. After he returned from his IL stint in late June he got ramped up and then hit quite well in July and for most of August. From July 9 through August 20, Polanco slashed .274/.348/.504, good for a 147 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR despite his continued terrible defense. In a six-week window, you could see the vision of why the 2B-needy Mariners traded a once-coveted OF prospect to the Twins to acquire Polanco.

He also carries a solid but significantly checkered history of success from his time in Minnesota. He debuted in MLB at age 20, and amassed 3.0 fWAR through his age-23 season in 2017. In March 2018, Polanco was suspended 80 games for performance-enhancing drug use. In 2019, he had a brilliant offensive season for the Twins, who hit the most home runs in MLB history thanks to the juiced ball, but was a terrible defender at SS. His best year was 2021, where a move to 2B blunted the negativity of his defensive impact, and a career-high 33 homers led to a 4-WAR season.

In the two seasons following his career year, he posted 3.1 fWAR across 184 games. In that time, his archetype as a player was consistent: an above-average hitter and a poor defender and runner who struggled to stay on the field due to lower-body injuries. The Mariners traded for him a year ago with that in mind, but what they got was pretty close to the worst-case scenario. In particular, Polanco’s K%, a sterling 14-19% throughout his youth and prime, continued its mid-career spike from 21% in 2022 and 26% in 2023 to a ghastly 29% with the Mariners. His .213 batting average was a career-worst by more than 20 points, his .296 OBP was his first season under .300, and his SLG% was drastically lower than in any previous season beside the 2020 COVID year.

But to consider bringing him back as a full-time starter, the Mariners have to view Polanco’s worst season of his career as an injury-related aberration.

Some positivity?

Here’s where I’ll interject with my most optimistic take on the signing. Part of the stunning aspect of the Mariners reuniting with Polanco was that both sides wanted to reunite at all after how poorly last season went.

At the very least, the return of the offseason’s signature acquisition who then massively disappointed means the Mariners didn’t have any significant concerns about Polanco’s work ethic or clubhouse fit. As we’ve seen in the past with guys Luis Urias, Eugenio Suarez or even Jean Segura, they’re capable of making these concerns public one way or another.

In the post announcing his signing Monday, Jerry Dipoto praised Polanco’s professionalism and toughness from 2024.

Julio Rodriguez posted his excitement for Polanco’s return on Instagram after the news was announced Thursday. Retired MLB pitcher and Seattle Mariners fan Trevor May said on Foul Territory Friday that Polanco was one of his favorite teammates during the seven years they played together in Minnesota.

If Polanco was truly a beloved teammate in the Mariners clubhouse, his return carries at least some inherent positivity, as the Mariners grow into the post-Scott Servais era.

Far more questions than answers

I see an inherent contradiction in throwing out Polanco’s overall numbers but highlighting the upside he showed for roughly six weeks coupled with the good parts of his track record in Minnesota. It feels more accurate to consider what happened in 2024 with Polanco to be a realistic bad outcome for an injury-plagued, aging player who contributes negative value with speed and defense.

Polanco’s good production also doesn’t line up with the period of time when the Mariners offense turned the corner late in the year. In fact, the end of his six weeks of solid performance and the beginning of his late season swoon almost directly coincided with Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez taking over. The so-called Edgar effect, the central element to the bull case for the Mariners offense in 2025 that was bolstered this offseason by the hire of hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, didn’t help Polanco, who was the worst Mariners regular after Edgar joined the team.

Another open question surrounds Polanco’s health: did he have a bad knee last year and for much of the two years before that that’s now all the way fixed, or does he just have bad knees in general? How much will the surgery impact Polanco’s start to the 2025 season, and is it reasonable to conclude that the injury is a thing of the past?

Those are difficult questions to answer with any sort of confidence. As noted above, the Mariners put vesting player options in Polanco’s contract at both 450 and 550 plate appearances, numbers he didn’t hit in 2022 or 2023. He did clear the first of those thresholds in 2024 despite his poor play, and Fangraphs’ projection systems think he’ll be in the neighborhood of one or both thresholds in 2025.

All that aside, the Mariners decided one of the worst defensive infielders of the last decade in MLB should fill their 3B void in 2025. Seattle Sports’ Shannon Drayer, whose insight usually aligns with the organization, articulated Thursday why Polanco could be better served at 3B than 2B.

There’s at least some reasonable thought process there, considering Polanco’s biggest issue at 2B was his league-worst range. Of course, in his brief MLB track record at 3B, he hasn’t been a good defender there either. The Mariners do have best-in-class infield coach Perry Hill to monitor Polanco’s hot corner transition.

But the Mariners have had Hill for years, including last year, when Polanco was the worst 2B in MLB. To think Polanco will hold up at 3B, you have to trick your brain into believing an increasingly complex set of scenarios that will all come true at once. He’s fully healthy suddenly, and missing much of the offseason rehabbing surgery won’t have any impact, and even though he’s still not a good athlete or defender when healthy, Perry Hill can coach him to overcome that, even though he could do nothing even remotely close to that last year. Frankly, it beggars belief.

Putting it in context

No offseason in the Dipoto era has seen fewer consequential moves than this one.

Perhaps the team’s uncharacteristic inaction won’t hurt the Mariners that much. After all, the actions Dipoto and Co. HAVE taken the last two offseasons, charitably, have not helped the team improve whatsoever, and less charitably, have actively hurt the team. Take last offseason, for example. Dipoto cleared payroll flexibility to bring in five new offensive players and Gregory Santos, a flame throwing reliever. The five offensive players racked up 1.8 fWAR COMBINED, less than the individual fWAR of the only good addition last year, Luke Raley. Santos appeared in eight games and seemed to sprout a new injury issue every month.

Unfortunately for purposes of this commentary, one of those bad additions last year was Polanco himself. Running it back this year with Polanco as the signature acquisition of the offseason for the second straight year, this time with much less upside from supplemental moves and a position change that sounds challenging at best, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Neither did Jerry Dipoto when he held a closed press conference on Zoom Monday to discuss Polanco and the offseason as a whole. Instead of acknowledging lackluster results at the presumed end of an offseason that started with the stated goal of upgrading nearly the entire infield, Dipoto did his very best to spin the Mariners current situation positively and project confidence in a roster with minimal changes.

To me, the delayed reunion with Polanco coupled with Dipoto’s comments Monday point to yet another instance of this front office’s inability to acknowledge its shortcomings and constant need to present every action (or inaction) as part of a grand strategy. The nadir of this mindset was the infamous 54% press conference in 2023, where Dipoto told fans he was doing them a favor just days after falling short of a return to the playoffs. It’s a continued insistence that fans and media aren’t intellectually capable of grasping Dipoto’s grand vision, and an ongoing frustration with a lack of praise and veneration for this front office’s expert execution of winning 85-90 games each season.

And from the reaction Monday, basically everyone who’s not at least tangentially on the Mariners payroll or haven’t chosen to willfully ignore Dipoto’s words are fed up with the spin. Monday didn’t bother me nearly as much as past Dipoto comments have, most likely because all of it was so eminently predictable.

The more this front office runs the exact same media playbook over and over, the more transparent the layers of BS insulating them become. Their public comments about Roki Sasaki, which for some reason became the focal point of their media strategy at the Winter Meetings in December, were nearly identical to what they said about their efforts to land Shohei Ohtani when he came over from Japan in 2017. This time, the Mariners didn’t even get a meeting. Fans can predict the spin that Dipoto will deploy to justify a second straight offseason headlined by Polanco, because he’s running an increasingly clear grift to justify his continued employment as the Mariners chief executive after nine seasons with one playoff appearance.

Maybe Polanco’s knees finally hold up this year, and he delivers the outcome the Mariners are once again seeking: something like 120 games of a 120 wRC+ and defense at 3B that doesn’t help you but doesn’t kill you either. If enough stabilizes across the rest of the roster, and the Mariners get a breakout or two, the vision of an 88-win division contender isn’t too hard to see. Heck, even the absolutely brutal offseasons before the 2023 and 2024 seasons saw those two teams show significant flashes of AL West contention.

But that’s the problem, isn’t it? The Mariners are built to continually churn out 85+-win seasons, but that doesn’t control for variance in what that outcome means. If the worst team in MLB history suddenly shows up in your league like it did in 2024, the mediocre teams in that division suddenly become more viable wild card contenders, even if their rosters are slightly worse than yours.

If anything, the Polanco reunion and an offseason of overall cautious inaction show the people in charge of the Mariners are perfectly content to continuing rolling the dice on this strategy until they eventually hit their lucky number. The fans of this baseball team have devoted decades of their lives despite less success to show for it than any other MLB franchise. They deserve more ambition, and after Monday, much more respect from those in charge.

At long last, the Mariners struck for the first guaranteed addition to their 26-man roster of the offseason Monday.

Seattle signed infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year, $3.5 million deal, with an additional $1 million in incentives, per Robert Murray. Solano, 37, plays all three spots on the infield, but none particularly well. What he does do is hit for a high batting average consistently despite his age and lack of speed.

From 2019 through 2024, Solano posted a wRC+ between 99 and 125 in every season. After hitting .330 and .326 with the Giants in 2019 and 2020, Solano has hit between .280 and .286 for four different teams, two with extreme hitter’s parks in Cincinnati and Minnesota and two with some of the least friendly hitting environments in the league in San Francisco and San Diego.

Solano’s ability to hit with consistency wherever he plays will be extremely relevant as he joins the Mariners for his age-37 season. He doesn’t add any value as a runner or defender, and his eight homers with the Padres last season was a career high. The Mariners are paying him to be that .280 hitter with a .750 OPS and an elite ability to find the launch angle sweet spot he has regularly been for the past four years.

Signing Solano does come with some risk that he could hit an age cliff and provide zero value. If he hits .260 with a .700 OPS, as Fangraphs currently projects, he will struggle to post even a 1-win season. The Mariners will hope Solano can replicate his recent offensive production, but at just $3.5 million, if he totally flops, they won’t find it nearly as hard to part ways with him as they did recently with veteran additions like A.J. Pollock, Kolten Wong, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver.

Where Solano fits into the Mariners’ overall plan for their 2025 roster remains a bit of a mystery. The Mariners have clear weaknesses and available playing time at 3B, 2B, right-handed 1B and DH. Solano’s Baseball Reference page, hilariously, lists him at all three of those infield positions, and he also spent significant time as a DH last year. Solano could potentially help with every major need the Mariners have, but he also can’t be cloned to fill them all, despite advances in modern science.

For some reason, the Mariners have pushed the hardest to upgrade their situation at 1B this offseason, suggesting they aren’t comfortable with a Luke Raley/Tyler Locklear platoon. By most accounts, signing 2022 folk hero Carlos Santana was essentially Plan A for the Mariners front office this offseason. The Mariners pushed hard for Santana, per Ken Rosenthal, offering him a contract that included an option for a second year in 2026, despite that being Santana’s age-40 season. After the Cleveland Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks, the team that Santana spent parts of 10 seasons with came calling with a one-year, $12 million deal.

For the Padres in 2024, Solano started in the field in 46 games, playing most commonly at 3B, slightly less often at 1B, and making a brief cameo at 2B. He’s played the most career games at 2B by far. It’s not entirely clear where the Mariners see him playing the most, but some early indications have pointed toward a platoon partnership with Luke Raley at 1B and some consistent reps at DH.

Solano profiles as an excellent short-side platoon bat, as he posted a sterling 134 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers last season. He’s been consistently well above league average against lefties since 2019. He also isn’t too shabby against RHP either, meaning he can likely handle playing everyday for extended stretches if necessary.

The dilemma with signing Solano to this roster is whether they can get significant plate appearances at either 3B or 2B out of him without horrible defense or affecting his steadiness at the plate. Dylan Moore projects to see nearly 600 plate appearances under the existing structure of the Mariners roster. He set his career high in plate appearances in 2024 with 441, and shouldn’t be asked to push past that mark by nearly 150. Other players projected for significant playing time at 2B and 3B right now include Ryan Bliss (280), Cole Young (266), Leo Rivas (126) and Nick Dunn (105). The addition of Solano could lower some those numbers significantly or have very little impact on them at all, depending on the Mariners’ vision and additional moves.

So what happens now?

The Mariners entered the offseason wanting to add two or three infielders, but after they struck out on Santana and Korean IF Hye-Seong Kim, three seems like a bit of a pipe dream.

Three seems more realistic if you count INF Austin Shenton as part of that group. Shenton, acquired from the Rays in November after he was designated for assignment, was the only player projected to be on the 26-man roster who joined the organization since the 2024 season ended before Solano signed Monday. A native of Bellingham, he’s a 27-year-old corner infielder and left-handed bat who spent three seasons with the Mariners before he was traded at the 2021 Trade Deadline for the Dominican Big Boss, Diego Castillo.

Shenton has more professional experience at 3B than any other position, but he played more 1B in 2024, as Rays top prospect Junior Caminero played mostly 3B for the AAA Durham Bulls. Shenton only appeared at 1B and DH in his brief MLB stint, and given less than glowing reports about his defensive acumen, it’s dubious to expect him to contribute in a big way at 3B. Still, Shenton is preferable to Dominic Canzone as a left-handed bench bat, so he may make the Mariners roster out of Spring Training.

Before the Solano signing, Shenton was penciled in for just 217 plate appearances despite making the projected Opening Day bench even after Solano’s addition, per Roster Resource. The Mariners need to add one more bat to push Canzone off the roster, so it seems likely they will shoot for another addition, and potentially treat Shenton as the third infielder, depending on if they can pull off two better additions.

While Solano’s potential to be merely a 1B/DH makes the roster fit awkward, MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer suggested in his write up of the signing that the Mariners are still interested in bringing back 1B/DH Justin Turner. Turner, the other veteran option in the Santana mold, appears to be waiting out the market, and he made $13M last season and likely won’t be keen to leave home for much less.

Turner posted a 126 wRC+ in 48 games after the Mariners got him from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline. The Mariners relished the impact he had on their clubhouse and indicated early this offseason that they were interested in a reunion.

While the additions of Solano, Shenton and Turner are all decent moves in isolation, taken together, they form an extremely underwhelming offseason. A couple of 1-WAR infielders who could fall off the age cliff at any moment and an overage, fringy prospect with 50 career MLB plate appearances is anything but splashy, and lacks ambition for driving the Mariners forward in their status as contenders.

Can the offseason still be saved?

The problem remains what’s plagued the Mariners all offseason so far: there’s not much they can realistically do. They can’t afford Alex Bregman for 3B, Pete Alonso for 1B or Anthony Santander for DH with the roughly $15 million they reportedly still have available to spend. The rest of the free agent market at 2B and 3B is largely terrible, with the most realistic everyday 3B available probably Yoán Moncada, who would have to take a cheap deal to attempt a bounce back in a terrible hitter’s park like T-Mobile. The most realistic starting 2B on the market could be Mariners reunions with Jorge Polanco or Adam Frazier.

On the trade market, the Mariners asked the Phillies about 3B Alec Bohm, an obvious change-of-scenery candidate, but the Phillies reportedly wanted Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. The Mariners also expressed interest in Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner, but the Cubs reportedly want to acquire MLB players in return, and the Mariners don’t have valuable MLB players to spare on their roster. Red Sox 1B Triston Casas has been linked to the Mariners this offseason, but Boston apparently asked for Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, another non-starter for Seattle.

With resources limited, the Mariners also explored trading Luis Castillo, who is set to make $22.5M per year over the next three seasons. While considering this move, the Mariners seem to want to add MLB impact at multiple offensive positions while also saving significant money. That, frankly, doesn’t seem feasible, and the Mariners have reportedly been frustrated by the discussions they’ve had about Castillo. Even if they were to find the perfect version of this extremely specific framework, Castillo has a full no-trade clause and would need to approve any deal through the end of 2025.

The largest hurdle they’re facing is a paucity of teams wanting to deal MLB players for prospects. Too many teams are attempting the strategy at the core of the Mariners’ baseball operations, trying to be good enough to push for the playoffs and see what happens after that. MLB’s race to the middle sees fewer and fewer teams attempting preseason resets. Largely, only the White Sox and Marlins are taking prospects for MLB players at the moment, and those teams don’t have above-average MLB players in abundance to sell.

The Mariners will likely target follow-up moves for any remaining additions outside of Turner or maybe Moncada. If Bregman or Alonso sign with the Mets, they could trade for Brett Baty as a buy-low strong-side platoon bat with upside at 3B. If Bregman lands in Detroit, they could look at Matt Vierling for 3B or promising youngster Jace Jung, the Tigers’ 2022 first-round pick who plays both 2B and 3B.

Still, the Mariners’ elimination from the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes likely erased the possibility of an offseason befitting a team that could push for a pennant in a soft American League. A Solano-Turner-Shenton offseason, even with a Baty-type added in, dooms the Mariners to another winter of half measures, brought on by years of ownership cheapness and baseball executive risk aversion.

An offseason like this could keep Seattle above water, pushing for another playoff appearance, and who knows what could happen after that. But three or four more half measures won’t do anything to assuage the concerns from fans that the leaders of this baseball team lack the necessary ambition to win the World Series.

Mariners fandom is full of talk about curses. Some believe T-Mobile Park was built on an ancient Native American burial ground. The team uses the trident logo as well as a literal trident to celebrate home runs, and many fans attribute a curse to that icon.

Multiple different positions at some point in the team’s history have been considered cursed. Cal Raleigh halted a disastrous run of post-Dan Wilson catchers. Randy Arozarena is arguably already the best LF the team has ever had.

The current cursed position du jour is second base. In late 2013, the Mariners signed Robinson Canó to the third-largest contract in MLB history at the time to play the position, and he provided 4.5 years of as-expected elite production. Canó, Nelson Cruz, and Félix Hernandez couldn’t drag a bad overall roster to the playoffs under either the Jack Zduriencik or Jerry Dipoto regimes. Canó popped for a PED violation midway through his fifth year, and after the season, Dipoto tore down the aging core in a cost- and job-saving maneuver, which included shipping Canó and Edwin Díaz to the Mets for future franchise savior Jarred Kelenic (or something like that).

Since the Canó trade, the Mariners have started a different second baseman on Opening Day every season, and will have a different one in 2025, although it may be a previous entry on the list.

Here’s how those six players performed in those six seasons:

2019 Dee Gordon: 77 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR
2020 Shed Long: 50 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR
2021 Dylan Moore: 74 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR
2022 Adam Frazier: 82 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR
2023 Kolten Wong: 50 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR
2024 Jorge Polanco: 92 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR

The Mariners have had a terrible “Plan A” at second base in every season since trading Canó. Perhaps the only bright spots have come from their “Plan B” for the position, when they’ve brought in guys like Abraham Toro in 2021 and José Caballero and Josh Rojas in 2023 for stints that briefly settled the position.

The last three names on the list have been high-profile, high-stakes bombs for the Mariners. Frazier, overall the best attempt at getting something decent out of second base, was cheaply acquired off of a 3.3 fWAR all-star campaign in 2021, but mostly struggled at the plate before becoming a postseason hero with the second-biggest double in franchise history in Toronto in the Wild Card series. Wong, who delivered solid 2B season after solid 2B season for nearly a decade in the NL Central, is arguably one of the worst Mariners ever, although his image is helped by Tommy La Stella, another star of the Mariners’ dreadful 2022-2023 offseason. He lost his job to Caballero in less than a month and was DFA’d at the trade deadline. Polanco, revered for his consistently above-average MLB bat, succumbed to constant injury and limped through one of the worst defensive seasons I’ve ever seen from a Mariners infielder.

All of these guys had some sort of impressive performance track record before arriving in Seattle. The Mariners didn’t give up anything that is likely to hurt them down the road in any of the trades to acquire them. But at the end of the day, all three proven veteran second basemen were varying degrees of disastrous acquisitions.

Add talent or handle internally?

That brings us to 2025. The Mariners face a frustratingly similar conundrum this offseason; how can they augment a promising roster core to break through the 85-to-90-win, maybe-playoffs purgatory and actually accomplish something meaningful under Dipoto with an unnecessarily tight (although not impossible to win with) budget provided by ownership?

At second base, they face an all-too-familiar hole without a proven MLB every day player. They’ve made that hole deeper and wider since the 2024 season ended by wisely declining Jorge Polanco’s 2025 club option and more dubiously non-tendering Josh Rojas, who played more than 50 games at 2B for the team in 2023 and 2024.

At the beginning of the offseason, I expected the Mariners to retain Rojas and operate with some sort of a platoon with the non-Polanco players to handle 2B for the team in 2024, Rojas, Moore, Ryan Bliss and possibly Leo Rivas. That approach would likely clear the runway for the future answer at second base for the Mariners, consensus top-50 prospect Cole Young, to arrive at some point between May and July. But then, a Jon Morosi report from the GM Meetings in November appeared to change the calculus.

Now, Morosi is prone to passing off what seem like good roster fits as reporting, but this intel clearly came from a direct conversation he had with the Mariners general manager. The state of play had shifted, and the Mariners seemed poised to once again pursue a veteran option at 2B.

There isn’t a more natural fit for that addition reasonably available than Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim. Kim is an ideal MLB 2B, a defensive wizard who steals bases and excels at hitting for contact, although his offense profile isn’t guaranteed to translate from the KBO, where he plays for the Kiwoom Heroes. It’s unclear how large of an MLB contract he’ll command, but projections largely paint the picture of an affordable multi-year contract in the $10 million-per-year range.

And so, especially with the non-tender of Rojas, I was under the impression that the Mariners would add another bat at 2B. But then, Ken Rosenthal started December with an interesting report that completely contradicted what Hollander told Morosi nearly a month ago.

Well, that doesn’t seem to suggest that they’re prioritizing adding talent at 2B. I generally am skeptical about Morosi’s reporting, especially after his high-profile flameout regarding Shohei Ohtani and Robert Herjavec’s plane this time last year, but I also don’t think he would make up a conversation with Justin Hollander. I also trust Ken Rosenthal when he provides intel about the Mariners front office. He broke the news of Scott Servais’ firing to Scott Servais, after all.

It’s fair to assume the Mariners were considering making a move at second base and no longer are, instead prioritizing a big move at 3B and the presumptive signing of a “veteran 1B/DH that Julio Rodriguez likes,” either Justin Turner or Carlos Santana.

And here’s where I say, I’m fine with that. I mean that not in a way that absolves the front office or says this is an incredibly ideal path to go down, but in a way that assesses the strengths and weakness of this front office (who we as fans are somehow still stuck with) and the nature of the second base market.

Assessing the 2B market

Firstly, yes, I would absolutely love for them to sign the aforementioned Kim. That said, I’m sure there’s deep competition for an affordable option in a weak market, and I would imagine the change from the Morosi report (Morosi and his colleague Mark Feinsand have also linked Kim to the Mariners) to the Rosenthal report is reflective of the Mariners at least not being a frontrunner for his services. He’d fit into their roster nicely, but they are ultimately one of 30 options for Kim to choose from, in theory.

Beyond Kim, the second base free agent market is bone dry. It’s headlined by Gleyber Torres, the leadoff hitter for the reigning AL Champion New York Yankees. Torres turns 28 next week and is coming off a full season where he posted a 104 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR. His defense at second base has largely always been terrible despite his pedigree as a highly-touted shortstop prospect, and it’s not clear what his position would be as he ages. As the only truly established prime 2B available, MLBTR projects he will receive nearly $20M per season. In the strongest terms, no thank you.

Past Torres, the picture muddles even further. In September, MLBTR identified two others, Ha-Seong Kim and Jose Iglesias, as “potential regulars” in the class. The Padres’ Kim has played shortstop most recently and could be intriguing, but he’s repped by Scott Boras and recently had shoulder surgery, so he’s a risky, costly mess of a free agent. Iglesias is a 35-year-old journeyman, as are a lot of the other names on the 2B market, like Brandon Drury, Whit Merrifield, Garrett Hampson, and even Frazier. Polanco may actually be the second-best MLB 2B available, behind Torres.

For any sort of established MLB “upgrade” at 2B, the Mariners would likely need to hit the trade market, as they have for three consecutive seasons. As the last three years have shown, “guy at a weak position who a team is willing to give up cheaply” isn’t an ideal way to find an established, quality player. The Mariners’ best crack at a realistically available, quality 2B option is someone like Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals, who is coming off another solid, above-average season but has more MLB experience in the outfield, or the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner (who Adam Jude reported the Mariners have inquired about), an elite defender and contact hitter who is hard capped at a .750 OPS, or even the Rays’ Brandon Lowe, another injury-prone, wrong side of 30 bat-first 2B like Polanco.

Maybe there’s a more creative trade for a name I’m missing from that list that could offer legitimate help at second base. Do you trust this front office to make it? Their three big ideas for how to fix the Canó sized hole they cleaved in the roster have combined for less than 1 WAR. Acquiring an available above-average MLB 2B isn’t easy, and this group surely hasn’t come close to doing it in three attempts. How can you possibly believe in them to finally get it right a fourth time?

So sure, you could pay Gleyber Torres $20 million in 2025, but they won’t, because they’re cheap and that’s dumb anyway. Or, they could thread the needle and try again to nail a perfect trade for a position they’ve massively whiffed on for a half decade.

Looking inward

What I’d like to see them do is lean on something they’re actually (at least supposed to be) good at: creating value from their prospect development.

A lot of people made Rosenthal’s report earlier this week about the Mariners entering a contending season with Dylan Moore as their everyday 2B, and I think that’s a reactionary misreading of their plans here. Moore just had a 2.5 fWAR season in which he appeared in 135 games and racked up 370 ABs. He had a 125 wRC+ against LHPs and a 92 wRC+ against RHP, and he’s in the final year of a contract that pays him $4 million in 2025. That player, especially since he’s the longest-tenured player on the roster, is going to have a role on the 2025 Mariners, and frankly, he’s earned one.

What I don’t see, is Moore’s name being listed first by Rosenthal as an indication that he’ll play every day to start the year, even if no one else is added. Sure, he might top the depth chart at the position, but he was always going to see an intentional 100-150 ABs against LHP, because he’s making 5x the league minimum on a cheap team and he’s got a proven track record of hitting them.

Then there’s Bliss, the actual prospect acquired in the 2023 trade deadline deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks that saw Paul Sewald shipped out to win an NL pennant. I guess I don’t know what people expect with Bliss, but the idea that the Mariners were just never going to intentionally try him for a decent period of time at the MLB level is odd, to me. In 2024, Bliss got juggled all over the place by the Mariners’ bizarre roster management, but thanks to a hot weekend in Miami, he delivered a promising opening salvo: 63 ABs, 0.4 fWAR, 101 wRC+. I get trepidation and “same old Mariners” talk if they were to give Bliss the Opening Day job, but if you have a 24-year-old 2B in AAA who posts an .833 OPS with 50 steals, shouldn’t you at least explore if that’s someone who can help you at the position with the lowest bar for productive offense?

And finally, and most importantly, there’s Young. The Mariners took Young in the first round in 2022, the second player in a run of investment in HS offensive talent that also includes Harry Ford, Colt Emerson, Johnny Farmelo and Tai Peete, essentially all of the big American names currently at the top of Mariners prospect lists. Young is a player that a team so outwardly committed to “draft, develop and trade” like the Mariners needs to become an above-average MLB regular. Formerly the team’s No. 1 prospect until he was usurped by Emerson over the past year, he succeeded at every level he’s faced in the Mariners system so far. In 2024, he was a key cog for the Arkansas Travelers’ Texas League championship. While the numbers (.759 OPS, nine homers in 124 games) don’t jump off the page, he passed the challenge of the Travelers’ home stadium, one of the worst hitting environments in MiLB.

Young played roughly 75/25 shortstop in AA in 2024, but his high-contact, speed and defense approach fits an ideal 2B/leadoff hitter profile. He will go to AAA to start the season, and his offensive output could see him shuttled up I-5 sooner rather than later. He represents a real shot at both the second baseman and the leadoff hitter the Mariners have been striving for this entire contention window.

That’s why I implore people to look past the potential implications of Moore starting at 2B on Opening Day 2025 for your Seattle Mariners. He was their fourth-most valuable offensive player in 2024. The guy has earned a role somewhere, somehow. Bliss deserved a longer look than he got last year, and he’s produced well enough in the high minors to be deserving of a real chance at some point. Why not in early 2025, before the 2B of the future, Young, takes over after a few months in AAA?

The Mariners have tried the most-available veteran 2B approach for three straight contending years, and that approach has actively harmed their contention. They’ve also chosen three slower players who played poor 2B defense, further lowering the floor that those players eventually sunk to once they arrived and struggled to hit. In 2025, shouldn’t they choose players with valuable floors and more conventional profiles, and invest time in actually solving the second base problem once and for all?