Mariners Hold Unique Opportunity with #3 Pick in MLB Draft
A preview of five players the Mariners may consider this weekend
Despite Mariner fandom being in a constant panic about ownership, Jerry DiPoto, Dan Wilson and Julio Rodriguez, Seattle is actually situated pretty well in the landscape of Major League Baseball. With nine players in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects and a current Wild Card spot in the American League, the Mariners are inbetween building for the future and capitalizing on the here and now. Rarely does a team the caliber of the Mariners hold a top five pick in an amatuer draft, but Seattle finds itself in rare air this week. When the draft lottery was held in December, the Mariners had a 0.5% chance of earning a lottery pick (considered top 5 in the draft). Side note: sadly, the Marlins had a 22.5% chance of a top 5 pick and will now draft 7th overall. See, it can be worse.
The 2025 draft is unique in that no one really knows who will go in the top 5. Sure, there are mock drafts and projections, but it is so hard to predict future success in baseball and the team holding the #1 overall pick (Washington Nationals) just fired their general manager. So yes, confusion and chaos could ensue. In order to be prepared for this weekend’s MLB draft, we provide you with a breakdown of the five players most likely to be available at #3 overall for your Seattle Mariners.
Left Handed Pitchers
Kade Anderson, LSU
Stats: 12-1, 3.28 ERA, 2 complete game shutouts, 35 walks and 180 strikeouts in 119 innings
Why would Mariners draft him?
Because he might be in the majors next year. At 21 years of age (and despite or maybe because of a Tommy John surgery), Anderson is ready to compete at a high level already. He throws a fastball, slider, and change up mix from the left side with potential for both the slider and changeup to be plus pitches. The fastball velocity sits at 94-95 MPH which makes me a little nervous for a top 5 pick. However, 180 strikeouts in 119 innings while pitching a shutout in the national championship game overrides those concerns.
Liam Doyle, Tennessee
Stats: 10-4, 3.20 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32 walks and 164 strikeouts in 95 2/3 innings
Why would Mariners draft him?
Also 21 years old and a seasoned college baseball vet, Doyle was really good this year. What makes Doyle really good is his fastball. Sitting in the mid-90s and touching 100 miles per hour, Doyle throws his fastball about two-thirds of the time. He also throws a slider and a cutter, but his fastball is what gets swings and misses (105 strikeouts this year on the pitch). Doyle has been to three colleges (Coastal Carolina and Mississippi) and wasn’t as effective before Tennessee. But he also wasn’t throwing as hard. That fastball will tempt the M’s if he is available. Maybe 15.49 K/9 would intrigue them. Just maybe.
Jamie Arnold, Florida State
Stats: 8-2, 2.98 ERA, 27 walks and 119 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings
Why would Mariners draft him?
Guess what? Also 21 years old and also gets a lot of swings and misses. Arnold throws from a lower arm slot that reminds me of Randy Johnson. His arm angle helps create a pretty nasty break on his sweeping breaking ball while throwing 94-97 MPH on his fastball. In some ways, the M’s would take him because the other two are gone I suppose. If Seattle wants a starter to potentially replace Gilbert, Castillo or Kirby in the next couple years, any of these three can do the trick.
The College Hitter
Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Stats: .354 average with 1.115 OPS in 310 plate appearances for the Beavers. Hit 19 HRs with 66 RBI while only striking out 51 times with 39 walks.
Why would Mariners draft him?
As a 6-5, 220 pound shortstop, it is easy to see why the Mariners would be interested. I just don’t know if you pass on guys who produce with that frame and athleticism. Arquette has a good swing and plenty of power potential as most analysts project at least 20-25 HR potential from him down the road. Even with Colt Emerson and Cole Young in the mix up the middle, Arquette might be too tempting to pass up.
The High Ceiling High School Arm
Seth Hernandez, Corona High School
Stats: Allowed only three earned runs (0.39 ERA) in 53 1/3 innings while striking out 105 batters and walking only seven batters. Also hit .300 with seven homers.
Why would Mariners draft him?
Some draft experts think Hernandez has the highest upside of any player in this draft. At 6-4, Hernandez touches upper 90s on his fastball while also throwing a plus level changeup already in high school. Interestingly, Hernandez didn’t play high school baseball until his junior year (although he was playing on select circuits) as he was homeschooled. People rave about Hernandez’s work ethic and his ability to adjust and improve. If the M’s do one thing well, it is develop starting pitching. I am sure they are salivating thinking about what they could do with Hernandez. However, he clearly would be at least 2 years (and more likely 3) from the majors.
The two other obvious players that would tempt the Mariners would be high school hitters Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits. Holliday could go number one overall and so he seems unlikely to fall to Seattle. However, Willits could very well be there and is considered by some to have the highest upside of any player in the draft (and is very young). With the M’s having so many hitting prospects in the low minors, it just doesn’t feel like they will go with another high school hitter. But Jerry DiPoto doesn’t usually follow what most predict so expect Willits in a Mariners uniform soon!