Seahawks Week 3 Preview: Miami Dolphins
Will the Dolphins be able to hang without Tua Tagovailoa?
When Tua Tagovailoa was hit by Damar Hamlin on September 12th, there was a collective gasp heard around the country. With his fourth concussion in just a few years, pundits and commentators (as well as fans) started to debate whether Tua should retire. Many former players even said it wasn’t worth it for Tua to continue playing. The reality is that none of us can tell Tua what to do with his future. We can worry, we can advise, and we can debate. But there is no medical evidence that points to how many concussions are too many. Maybe someday we will have a number for this or we will have a brain scanning technology that can quantify the bruising on the brain to provide a recommendation on retirement. As of now, we just have to hope that Tua gets better and that he remains better - no matter what decision he makes.
However, we do know that Tua Tagovailoa is on IR and won’t play against the Seahawks this weekend. It appears that Skylar Thompson will be back at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins and that should benefit Seattle. You will read stories this weekend before the game about how Skylar Thompson wasn’t that bad last time he started in 2022 and that coach Mike McDaniel really believes in him. All of that is just a zag on the main story line that the Dolphins are in trouble without Tua. Granted, Miami has enough weapons to beat the Seahawks but it won’t be because of Skylar Thompson. If Seattle wants to compete for the NFC West, they need to win this game and take advantage of playing a third straight back up level quarterback to open 2024.
Dolphins Offense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
QB Skylar Thompson
RB De’Von Achane (5th/47 RB)
WR Tyreek Hill (22nd/107 WR)
WR Jaylen Waddle (24th/107 WR)
WR Braxton Berrios (98th/107 WR)
TE Jonnu Smith (34th/69 TE)
LT Terron Armstead (3rd/68 T) or Kendall Lamm
LG Robert Jones (53rd/68 G)
C Aaron Brewer (5th/33 C)
RG Liam Eichenberg (13th/68 G)
RT Austin Jackson (61st/68 T)
In the Trenches
The Dolphins and Seahawks mirror each other when it comes to run and pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus. Miami is the 4th best running block unit in the league, but 30th in pass blocking. If the Dolphins are successful up front in this game, it will likely be due to LT Terron Armstead and LG Robert Jones playing through injuries. Armstead is having a nice season and he will need to continue that play against the likes of Boye Mafe on the outside. Jones isn’t particularly good, but C Aaron Brewer helps. Of course, Brewer is replacing Connor Williams who signed with the Seahawks and is off to a slow start. Regardless of who plays or doesn’t, the Dolphins will try to establish the run with De’Von Achane (and maybe Raheem Mosert). While Achane has been awesome out of the backfield, running between the tackles hasn’t been great thus far. Achane is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry, but will likely get plenty of opportunities with Thompson at quarterback.
Dolphins Playmakers
Everything here starts with the receivers and I am including Achane in that conversation. While the Dolphins lack depth at the receiver spot due to a lack of talent and injuries, the duo of Jaylen Waddle (9 catches on 9 targets in 2024) and Tyreek Hill (10 catches and 154 yards) are ridiculous. Throw in Achane’s 14 catches out of the backfield and the Dolphins are flat out scary. The thing about Tyreek Hill is that he is so fast and so good that it may not matter how good your coverage is against him. He just needs one play to change a game. The Miami playmakers of Achane, Waddle and Hill are the reason the Dolphins can win this game no matter who is throwing them the ball.
Matchups to Watch
Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon will be tasked with shutting down Hill and Waddle. Those match ups will get the headlines, but the Seahawks ability to find Achane out of the backfield will be crucial to Seattle’s success. Rookie Tyrice Knight, along with Jerome Baker, performed poorly last week trying to cover Hunter Henry, Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson. Watch how Miami tries to get Achane the ball in these clips (week 1) and that was before they had a backup quarterback playing. The Hawks will have to be disciplined and swarm to Achane. That starts with the linebackers which makes it our match up to watch.
Dolphins Defense
Projected Starters (with PPF position rank)
LE Emmanuel Ogbah (80th/114 DE)
DT Zach Sieler (31st/115 DL)
RE/DT Calais Campbell (27th/115 DL)
DE/OLB Jaelan Phillips (65th/114 DE)
LB David Long, Jr. (24th/77 LB)
LB Jordyn Brooks (8th/77 LB)
CB Jalen Ramsey (78th/98 CB)
S Jordan Poyer (71st/78 S)
S Jevon Holland (38th/78 S)
CB Kendall Fuller (26th/98 CB)
NB Kader Kohou (98th/98 CB)
In the Trenches
The Dolphins defense is middle of the pack overall, but their run defense is currently ranked 2nd in the NFL. I would have guessed Calais Campbell had something to do with it. While he may be 58 years old, he seems to always shine against the Seahawks. Interestingly, it is the two linebackers and the back end that have the best run grades for Miami. Campbell, along with Jaelen Phillips, has been better rushing the passer than stopping the run. It is hard to say how the line of scrimmage will play out against the Dolphins but Anthony Bradford and Connor Williams will have to be better for the Hawks to be successful.
Dolphins Playmakers
It is hard to not name Jalen Ramsey as the Dolphins playmaker on defense. However, Ramsey is ranked 108th in the NFL in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. At the same time, Ramsey has allowed two catches on two targets in 2024 on just 43 pass plays. For comparison, Woolen and Witherspoon have each been in on 84 pass plays. In 2023, Ramsey was 89th in coverage but quarterbacks only had a 52.9 passer rating against him. This is a long way of saying to not discount Jalen Ramsey and that stats can be misleading. He is the guy to watch and the one I worry will pull down a huge interception in this game.
Match ups to Watch
The Seahawks simply need to be better in pass protection and life doesn’t get easier this week with the Dolphins. While the blocking has been better in the run game, Zach Charbonnet needs to get something going for the Hawks to have a balanced attack. Thus, the front seven is what I will be watching. Anthony Bradford is tied for the NFL lead in penalties with four, including the horrific holding in the end zone penalty in week one. Can Bradford hold his own or will we see more Christian Haynes? Will Connor Williams rebound from his awful 37.8 pass block grade in week two? Whichever team controls the line of scrimmage will dictate if this is a blow out for the Seahawks or comes down to the wire.
Prediction
The Seahawks defense will be improved from last week. Mike Macdonald just seems like a guy that will be pissed about getting gashed on the ground, make a fix, and attack it. At the same time, Ryan Grubb will be annoyed about the lack of a ground game. Before the season, I predicted this as a loss but Skylar Thompson isn’t enough.
Seahawks 30 (-4), Dolphins 23
NFL Picks
Record through one week (including Hawks predictions): 4-5-2 (wins-losses-push)
In addition to predicting the Seahawks result each week, I will pick five more NFL games for your reading pleasure. Last week was decent with a 3-3 record. This week we pay for college.
Texans (-2) at Vikings
Sam Darnold and the Vikings are going to go 3-0? Really? There was some luck involved with Minnesota’s win over San Francisco. The Texans will be too much in this one with Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
Lions (-3) at Cardinals
Call me stupid but I am going back to the Lions. The Cardinals wiped the field with the Rams and the Lions lost to the Bucs. I just think the Lions could win the Super Bowl so stupidly I am taking Jared Goff on the road. Bet against me on this one.
Eagles (+2.5) at Saints
The Saints are the only team in the NFL to score 40+ points in the first two weeks and Derek Carr looks like a new person. The Eagles lost a ridiculous game to the Falcons last week. So obviously you have to pick the Eagles here.
Commanders at Bengals (-7.5)
This is a Bengals team that is 0-2 and desperate for a win. The Commanders defense is the second worst in the league. Despite the fun of Jayden Daniels, this one is going to be a rout.
Chargers (+1.5) at Steelers
Will this game finish 7-6? Maybe. I just would rather have Justin Herbert and the running game of the Chargers over any quarterback who plays for the Steelers. Jim Harbaugh is back.
LatsgoSeahawks!