The Mariners bring the good vibes back
A huge win at the trade deadline gives the Mariners hope for a magical 2025
Time was running out on Wednesday night, and the Mariners were losing a Bryan Woo start to the cityless Athletics with 18 hours to go until the MLB trade deadline.
And then, from the clouds, the notification from the Baseball is Dead discord hit my phone: “@Mariners, @Diamondbacks”. Having received the same notification a week ago for Josh Naylor’s acquisition, I could conclude only one thing: Geno was back.
The trade for Eugenio Suárez, a Mariners hero in the midst of the best season of his career, has changed the complexion of Seattle’s season. It also represents the top move available on the board for any contender looking for an offensive upgrade. The Mariners were able to complete it the day before the deadline for a shockingly inexpensive prospect haul. In every sense, the move is a home run.
The Suárez deal, the pièce de résistance of an excellent Mariners trade deadline, could energize what’s been a sleepy, middling Mariners season so far outside of the astounding individual exploits of Cal Raleigh. The energy around the move radiated through the screen from the ballpark last night, as nearly 30,000 showered Geno with ovations all night. While they’re already sitting in a playoff spot with a positive projected outlook, there’s real hope that splashing for Suárez could turn the tide.
Good Vibes Only
Mariners acquire 3B Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks for 1B Tyler Locklear (MLB), RP Hunter Cranton (A+) and RP Juan Burgos (AAA)
I’ve already called this deal a home run, so you can pretty clearly intuit how I feel about it. Where it initially seemed like the price for Geno would get too rich for the Mariners blood, the pendulum swung suddenly the other way Wednesday night, and the Mariners landed their former 3B for a shockingly light prospect haul.
Locklear could only have been the signature piece of a deal like this over the past week or so, and it’s incredibly fortuitous for the Mariners that his insane AAA heater since making a swing change in late June got this done for them. It’s possible he’s a good MLB 1B very soon, but for him to headline the Mariners’ signature move for the most resonant player they could possibly add is an incredible coup. It’s a credit to the Mariners’ front office, and in particular, their close relationship with Arizona’s front office, that they were able to land both Suárez and Naylor without a Top 100 guy.
Another shocking aspect of the return was Arizona accepting relief prospects instead of starters in Cranton and Burgos. Both had promising upside to contribute to the Mariners’ 2025 bullpen and beyond, but Cranton was derailed by a liner to the face in Spring Training and Burgos had a rocky cameo in the bigs. Truly, this return would have been stunning even a month ago, and barely makes sense now. Baseball Trade Values, a notoriously flawed public MLB player value site, rated the deal as an underpay by the Mariners, which is a shocking outcome for a deadline deal for the best hitter obviously available.
The Geno effect was on full display on his first day back in the organization, as he took over social media, played to the home crowd and even scored the game’s first run after poking a double down the line. Anecdotally, I’ve never seen a Mariners acquisition quite like this, where he subsumes everything else surrounding the team.
The Mariners new-look lineup was substantially upgraded by Geno’s addition:
On their trade deadline show Thursday, Jake Mintz, the non-Mariners fan half of Cespedes Family BBQ, called this the best Mariners lineup since 2001. It’s hard to argue with that definitively, especially after moving Randy Arozarena, the team’s best hitter over the past six weeks, to the leadoff spot. It’s a great top six, and all three of the bottom three contributed in various ways on Thursday. The added value of swapping Ben Williamson for Suárez has completely transformed an already pretty stellar Mariners offense.
Nayl-ed it
Mariners acquire 1B Josh Naylor from the Diamondbacks for RP Brandyn Garcia (AAA) and SP Ashton Izzi (A+)
You could argue no team is likely to see more 2025 value from a deadline move than the Mariners will get from the Naylor trade, which they closed with the Diamondbacks a full week before the deadline.
As much as Garcia has significant upside as an immediate relief contributor and Izzi was showing promise this season in Everett, it was shocking that Arizona took this deal when they did. It let the Mariners get Naylor for most of their road trip through Anaheim and Sacramento, which didn’t go well but would’ve gone worse without him.
Naylor’s competitive factor has been off the charts since he arrived. He said in the dugout before his first game that he loves to win. He hit an absolute tank off of a left-handed pitcher and was all business in the aftermath, barely emoting. Thursday, he expressed his love and admiration for Suárez by saying he felt “pure joy” when he heard the news, while barely cracking a smile. He walked up to “Stan” by Eminem in his first home game, which is a song about being obsessive and crazy.
Naylor may look like previous Mariners 1B Rowdy Tellez in terms of physique, but since arriving, he’s been anything but. That’s been particularly apparent on the basepaths, where Naylor, who has some of the worst measured sprint speed in the league, has stolen five bases without being caught in his first week with the team.
All told, the two deals with Arizona, particularly at the cost they were accomplished for, made this an “A” deadline for the Mariners, as long as they did basically anything of note to address the bullpen.
Finally, a second lefty
Mariners acquire LHP Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates for SP Jeter Martinez (A)
The Mariners could have taken several paths to improving their bullpen, and they chose an adequate one. They have been particularly bad in the 5th and 6th inning this year, and failing improvement from four starters there wasn’t really a feasible way to upgrade, they needed to lengthen their bullpen somewhat.
For me, the best way to do this would have been adding another right-handed reliever to their high-leverage group that would allow for greater flexibility in how they use Matt Brash. The Mariners did reportedly attempt to do this, according to Adam Jude from the Seattle Times. They apparently had an offer out to the Twins for electric closer Jhoan Duran, Jude told Puck Sports, that was comparable to the one the Twins ended up taking from the Phillies. After not landing that deal, the Mariners seemingly chose not to pursue any additional alternatives, which, while frustrating, isn’t necessarily egregious.
By this time, they had already landed Ferguson to add something else they’ve been missing in the bullpen: a second left-handed pitcher. Gabe Speier has had an excellent 2025, and currently holds the distinction as the best lefty strikeout reliever the Mariners have ever had on a rate basis. But without a second lefty in the bullpen, Speier was often pigeonholed into less-than-ideal usage. The Mariners would often use Speier for a high-leverage pocket of lefties in the fifth or sixth inning at the end of a start, and then face a big shrug emoji of how to bridge to Brash and Muñoz.
Ferguson should help solve that problem, and he offers a different skillset to Speier, with a more diverse pitch arsenal and an elite soft contact-oriented approach. Additionally, as a member of the 2018 and 2023 Dodgers and the 2024 Astros, he has more postseason experience than the entire Mariners bullpen combined.
Where I struggle with Ferguson being the only move made to improve the Mariners bullpen is that he doesn’t seem like a great candidate for consistent, meaningful 7th and 8th innings. He’s exceptional at inducing weak contact from left-handed hitters, but he doesn’t strike out many hitters and is outlier poor at missing bats. I’d slot him into the 4th spot on the Mariners’ bullpen ladder, but Eduard Bazardo (who has been outstanding lately) will likely see a good amount of high-leverage innings still. Carlos Vargas and Casey Legumina, both of whom have been maddeningly inconsistent for different reasons, will likely see the occasional important appearance still, which isn’t ideal. Trent Thornton had been heating up before tearing his Achilles Thursday, and he’ll be replaced by Jackson Kowar.
The group appears to largely be the group, as the Mariners traded a bunch of their potential minor league relief help and seem unlikely to conjure up a high-leverage arm from an August DFA pickup. It isn’t an incredible bullpen, and it doesn’t measure up against a few of the recently constructed monstrosities from other deadline buyers. The Mariners will have to hope their starters help lessen the load by pitching better than they have in the final two months.
An excellent deadline by any measure
The Mariners deserve commendation for a fantastic effort at the trade deadline. Another high-leverage arm could have pushed them even further toward playoff contention, but it’s hard to quibble with specifics when freaking Geno Suárez is back and smiling in the middle of the Mariners lineup.
Entering this critical series against the Rangers with the best lineup Jerry Dipoto has ever assembled was a huge victory in and of itself. The spoils were on display Thursday, as they battered Texas while George Kirby, Ferguson, Thornton and Legumina kept them off the board. It remains to be seen how the Mariners play once the dust settles and the adrenaline wears off, but for one night, they felt unstoppable.
The Mariners have universally been lauded as trade deadline winners, primarily because they landed the Geno plane without overpaying. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections say the Mariners improved their playoff odds the second-most of any team, and by far the most in the American League. They were up to 71% after the deadline, and that leapt to 77% with the series-opening win over Texas. They also still have a 26% chance at the AL West, which isn’t great but also isn’t insignificant.
The path before the Mariners is clear: the 8th-best team in the AL has a 12% chance to make the playoffs, meaning the Mariners need to beat just one of the Yankees (94%), Red Sox (61%) and Rangers (41%) to claim the sixth playoff spot. They’ve put themselves in position to do that and accomplish whatever follows that in October.
Hope we’re playing in October 🤞🏼