The middling Mariners eye July upgrades
Seattle has no choice but to trudge forward through the AL Wild Card muck
Of the Mariners teams since they started winning again, none have seemed as hopelessly middling as the 2025 vintage.
The 2021 Mariners thrived on pure vibes. The 2022 Mariners played rancid ball for nearly three months before morphing into a legitimate juggernaut. The 2023 Mariners came to life over the summer and pushed for a division title. The 2024 Mariners played out of their minds at home before a summer collapse led to changes in the dugout and a late resurgence.
Through the first half of the season, the 2025 Mariners are just kind of there. A good enough start against a soft early schedule saw them lead the AL West for roughly a month, but since then, they’ve been mired in the muddled middle of the AL Wild Card race. They have one of the league’s best rotations on paper, but aren’t getting more than league-average production from their starters. Their offense rates well overall, but is maddeningly inconsistent game-to-game and struggles mightily with runners in scoring position. Their bullpen is solid on the back end, but its depth is shoddily constructed and often poorly deployed.
The 2025 Mariners are, in a word, mid.
Where in years past, that would have curbed the team’s opportunity for success, the 2025 American League is pacing to be one of the weakest leagues in recent MLB history. Entering July, the Mariners hold the third and final AL Wild Card spot, and they are the sixth and final AL team over .500. The closest team pushing them in the playoff race as of Monday was the freaking Angels, for perspective.
It should be noted that the Mariners have largely fallen out of the AL West race. The Astros have sped away, once again playing inspired ball even without their star, Yordan Alvarez. In a year where they lost two more stars from their championship run, they still totally outclass the Jerry Dipoto Mariners.
Facing the backdrop of an unlikely division title, an extremely soft wild card, and questions about what their budget looks like in the wake of the Leody Taveras debacle, the Mariners must navigate the trade deadline. The July window has become much more critical for the Mariners in recent years. Dipoto didn’t make a player-for-player swap after the 2024 trade deadline for 10 months, a reflection of how difficult trading has become for a team that also has precious little to spend in free agency year-to-year. The deadline offers the most trade-friendly environment for the Mariners to improve, both for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Selling is off the table
Selling at the trade deadline doesn’t make sense for the 2025 Mariners. A playoff appearance, even if it’s the final Wild Card at around 84-86 wins, would carry an outsized impact for the franchise and its fans, as it would be just their sixth one ever. Even with the Astros pulling away in the division, there’s simply no reason for the Mariners to wave the white flag on the season.
On top of that, the team isn’t set up to sell. It’s unclear if any of their players on expiring contracts, including Jorge Polanco, Dylan Moore, Donovan Solano and Mitch Garver, would net anything more than a minor league flier. Their veterans who could potentially net some impact, such as Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, and their relief aces Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash, would likely help them more in 2026 than whatever they would reasonably get in a trade. The Mariners are perpetually attempting to contend, and they can’t afford to strategically step back in 2026 to chase some sort of dubious upside in 2027 or 2028.
Even in a seller’s market, while barely over .500, selling doesn’t work for the 2025 Mariners.
How big should they buy?
The question then becomes, how big should the Mariners go in July in an attempt to inject a middling team with life in the second half?
They’re certainly going to be in the market for a corner infield bat. First base will probably be the easiest position to add at, with a wide range of veterans available on seller-minded teams. But third base, with Ben Williamson playing nearly every day and Moore enduring the worst stretch of his career, offers the biggest opportunity.
The obvious, but complicated, name for an upgrade at third base is Eugenio Suárez. The Mariners’ offense is sorely lacking in consistent power output outside of Cal Raleigh, and they have seen first hand how Suárez can add thump to their offense. A trade for Suárez, who will almost surely be available unless Arizona catches fire, would be a significant capitulation by Dipoto. He salary dumped him in late 2023 behind the clear belief that Suárez was washed up, only for the Venezuelan dynamo to smack 56 homers in 1.5 seasons in the desert. The Mariners would need to find about $5 million for Geno, but beyond that, Dipoto would have to tuck tail and publicly acknowledge that his attempts to replace Suarez haven’t succeeded.
A move for Suarez, his Arizona teammate Josh Naylor, or Orioles all-star Ryan O’Hearn, seems like the kind of headline move the Mariners will make this deadline. They aren’t bombshell moves, but they’ll cost a third tier prospect or two and shore up some weaknesses in the lineup.
Last season, with a flawed lineup and bullpen, they invested seven prospects to add two bats, including Arozarena, and two bullpen arms. I don’t expect that level of investment this time around, but three, likely two bats and one relief arm, could be the magic number for them this year.
Depending on available resources and Cleveland’s trajectory, a Carlos Santana reunion could also be possible. The Mariners aggressively tried to land Santana this winter and came up short, and it wouldn’t be the first time they asked him to save their season. If the Mariners think Moore has truly lost it, they could make a move for Pittsburgh’s Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Baltimore’s Ramón Urías, both of whom should cost very little to acquire.
It will be interesting to see what sort of arm they target, or if they acquire multiple. They have a good amount of weaknesses in their pitching staff right now:
They lack a reliable, high K/9 4th arm in the bullpen to pitch high-leverage 6th and 7th innings.
They don’t have a second lefty arm whatsoever, meaning they can only generate the coveted left-on-left platoon disadvantage during one outing per game, roughly three times per week maximum.
Emerson Hancock’s numbers as the 5th starter have a lot of noise in them, but he could feasibly be upgraded, and both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have dealt with significant injuries this year, which could make a depth starter make sense.
Ultimately, I think the Mariners go cheap on the arm and make a similar move to the J.T. Chargois trade before the 2024 deadline. They likely view AAA lefty Brandyn Garcia as a potential second-half breakout in the second lefty role, and the arm they really need is a consistent FOURTH reliever behind Andres Muñoz, Matt Brash and Gabe Speier, which likely doesn’t justify spending significant prospect capital. I’m not a Carlos Vargas or Casey Legumina guy, but I could see the logic in hoping for a sun run from one of them vs. trading Tyler Locklear+ for a bad team’s 8th-inning guy.
The depth starter case is tricky, and falls into the same boat of “is this really worth paying a decent prospect for?”. Right now, the Mariners have a solid five, with Hancock the only squeaky wheel. Logan Evans didn’t necessarily shine in his MLB audition, but he’s a solid enough 6th starter. Bryce Miller probably won’t pitch again this year, but he’s technically still attempting to return in July. The case to acquire a real upgrade is thin enough that the inflated deadline cost may be prohibitive.
Ultimately, two bats, one on the higher end of the market and one on the lower end, and one arm feels like the right-size solution for a team with very little chance of winning anything meaningful in the regular season. Seattle’s continued apathy toward constructing anything capable of winning more than 54 percent of its games has likely doomed their 24th consecutive failed attempt at the AL West. Conversely, that lack of ambition permeates the rest of the league and has opened the opportunity for even a shaky Mariners team to sneak in and hit the ground running in the playoffs.
The Mariners are mid, but their path beyond that mediocrity likely isn’t achievable at this trade deadline. Truly, the only way this team breaks 90 wins this year will be through Logan Gilbert and George Kirby (1.4 fWAR combined in 2025) regaining their elite level with improved health in the second half, or a massive, sustained, Julio Rodríguez heater. Otherwise, the Mariners will need a couple of bounces to go their way, find their way into the playoffs and hope that anything can and does happen.
Thanks for the accurate snapshot of the moment for the Mariners , and what could come next .
Its very frustrating to be a fan of this era of the M’s - a team that wins 55% of their games when things go well and thinks 58% is over the Moon success .
Constant excuses . Blaming the ballpark … a Mariners team won 116 games in that park. Management might not remember , but fans do .
The only thing that keeps me from completely tuning out is the nature of baseball - on any given night one can see a magical memorable performance out of no where .
I have learned I do not know much about em el bee trading. O.o